By Milinda Moragoda, Courtesy The Hindustan Times

The international system is undergoing a profound transformation. The certainties of the post-World War II order — anchored in the UN, Bretton Woods institutions, and a rules-based multilateral framework — are buckling under pressure. What appears to be emerging in its place is a more transactional and interest-driven global order, shaped by spheres of influence and great power bargains reminiscent of the 19th century’s Congress of Berlin and the Cold War doctrines of George Kennan and Henry Kissinger’s realpolitik.

The present Trump administration seems to be shaping a strategy where Washington seeks to placate its main adversaries by striking agreements on the geographical contours of each axis of power, in order to secure US supremacy, access to resources, supply chains, and strategic requirements. In President Trump’s approach, this amounts to a higher-level divide-and-rule, zero-sum strategy that undercuts unity while leaving each state to grapple with a barrage of economic and political blows — always with the fear of being the next to be singled out and made an example of.

In this emerging order, there are no guarantees and few enduring norms. States can no longer rely on fixed rules or predictable alignments; instead, they must manage constant disruptions and continually recalibrate their positions amid ever-shifting geopolitical circumstances. Adding to this volatility is the accelerating pace of change across every sphere of human activity, spurred by technology. Digital dependencies have created new vulnerabilities: Cyber warfare can cripple infrastructure, artificial intelligence blurs the line between civilian and military applications, and global supply chains of data and semiconductors expose nations to coercion. Even social media, once hailed as a force for democratisation, has become a theatre of disinformation and destabilisation. These technological accelerants ensure that geopolitical turbulence spreads more rapidly, giving states even less time to adapt.

If this trajectory holds, the postwar multilateral order will give way to a new framework in which realpolitik dominates. Smaller and less powerful states will face stark choices. Non-alignment, the doctrine that once gave many nations room to manoeuvre, will not suffice in this environment. Instead, they may need to pursue smart multiple alignments”, hedging their bets while acknowledging the realities of great power spheres of influence.

For India, this transition presents both risks and opportunities. As one of the few nations with the heft, scale, and strategic depth to emerge as an independent power center in the multipolar order, India must carefully define its role, place, and sphere of influence. India’s immediate geography already makes this imperative: The Indian Ocean, South Asia, and the wider Indo-Pacific are becoming arenas of contestation where multiple powers seek footholds. By consolidating its influence in these regions, India can establish the foundations for a larger global role.

Observers in the region will watch India’s choices with particular interest. Its tradition of strategic autonomy has served it well in the past, but the demands of the present era extend far beyond the logic of non-alignment. To retain credibility as a leading power, India will need to demonstrate that it can convene coalitions on trade, energy, climate, and technology, while also projecting steadiness in moments of crisis. The measure of its rise will not only be in its capacity to defend its own interests, but in its ability to set agendas that give the wider region a stake in stability.

Yet India’s role need not be limited to hard calculations of power. Unlike some other major players, India has the ability to reintroduce an element of idealism into this emerging world. Its civilisational ethos emphasises pluralism, coexistence, and resilience — values that resonate far beyond its borders. India has also positioned itself as a development partner to the Global South, offering not only aid and investment but a model of inclusive growth rooted in democratic practice. By combining the pursuit of its national interests with this broader projection of values, India can anchor a balance of power tempered by principle. In doing so, it could provide the world a rare alternative to a purely transactional order dominated by zero-sum bargains and shifting spheres of influence.

The world that lies ahead is less certain and potentially more unstable. Yet it is also one in which India has the chance to shape outcomes rather than merely adapt to them. The post-1945 order is over. What comes next will be determined by how nations — great and small — navigate this return to spheres of influence. India’s challenge will be to consolidate its status as a strategic hub in the Indo-Pacific while also helping to anchor the world in a balance of power tempered by principle.

Milinda Moragoda is a former Cabinet minister and diplomat from Sri Lanka and founder of the Pathfinder Foundation, a strategic affairs think tank. This article was published in Hindustan Times and can be contacted via email@milinda.org