Dilrook Kannangara

Anura completes a year in office and compared to all his predecessors, he is more popular than he was at the time of his election. He and his party seem to be working to a plan that covers their political requirements and people’s aspirations. From personal experience in Sri Lanka, people across the ethnic and religious divide seem to be more united today than ever before. Despite economic hardships, people seem to be happier than the past 20 years and show an increasingly indifferent attitude to politics and political change. However, Anura, just like his predecessors since 1993, has failed to fix the economy. This will come to bite him in a couple of years’ time. For this reason, the NPP will not be able to retain the same number of seats at the next parliamentary election. It will be a drop. This is not to say anyone else can fix the economy; none can.

Taking on the Underworld is Risky Business

No Sri Lankan government took on the underworld and the narcotics mafiosi in a sustainable effort to rid them both until 2025. The NPP regime, backed by their 2/3 in parliament, has embarked on the risky business of confronting both. If things go to plan it will be a bigger victory for the nation than 2009 but if things don’t go to plan, a few key individuals might pay for it with their life. Getting the police and the judiciary to be as tough as the ruling party on drugs and the underworld is a tough ask. They may not share the same enthusiasm for fear or favor.

As happens across the world, the underworld fights back, first amongst themselves and then against authorities when it is seriously confronted. A temporary surge in underworld killings is normal during this phase. However, despite the best efforts of authorities, key underworld figures may find legal loopholes and will be back in the society after lengthy court proceedings.

International Legitimacy

The biggest achievement of Anura and his ruling party is their international legitimacy which Sri Lankan governments failed to achieve since 1977. After Sirimavo, Anura is the only leader who has earned the respect of the East and the West. His fellow Cabinet minister also seem to get that recognition and respect around the world. Unlike in the past the Sri Lankan expatriate community is not divided today. They still do have petty political differences but despite that there is no hate or intense dislike of the national leadership. This is a first for Sri Lanka. It has a positive impact on foreign investments and in tourism.

As a result, the time and resources some previous regimes spent on PR initiatives in foreign countries without much effect are not required. As expected, Sri Lanka suffered once again at the UNHRC but that didn’t translate to any ethnic confrontation this time which is a welcome development. Unlike in the past, the regime does not seem to have been rattled by it either.

Outpouring Public Affection in the North, South, East, West and Center

For the only time in Sri Lankan history, the current regime top leaders are getting noticeable public affection from all parts of the island. This may be temporary but it is unprecedented. Political parties that demanded separate nations and political solutions have understandably gone silent (for now).

Economic Development is Where the Fairy Tale Ends

However, the fairy tale ends when in comes to economic development. Sri Lanka’s real economy is still behind 2018 and next year’s projected growth is just 3.1% which is miserable. It has to be at least 8% for people to feel real economic growth. The economy alone will decide if Anura succeeded or failed. Public opinion and outpouring affection are worthless if the president fails the economy.