– Kumar Moses

Peaceful regime change is a right of the people. But violent undemocratic regime change is a threat to that right.

Having failed to secure a regime change in the island through peaceful means, western destabilization agents (including Australian) will surely try out militant means. If their regime change tactics work, this country will lose all hope of prosperity following 30 years of war and will end up like Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, Nicaragua, Columbia, Iran or Indonesia in 1998. That affects everybody adversely except for warlords and hence it must be averted using whatever means that work.

There are two essential ingredients to avert violent regime change. The first is to remain popular among people. If rulers and their henchmen keep abusing their power, that makes the regime unpopular in a day. If the cost of living increases relative to the cost of dying that turns people into rebels overnight. If corruption spirals out of control that too drives people into extreme measures against the regime. It is up to the government to reduce these incidents and take control of the situation so that people will not rebel against it. Extreme economic conditions led to a violent regime change in Sri Lanka in 2001. Once the movement was in motion, using violence exacerbated the situation. It is the task of the government to keep people reasonably happy and safe to avoid a mass rebellion.

At the same time the military must be geared to prevent any violent move by any quarter to change the regime. Although the military has successfully routed the JVP twice and completely annihilated the LTTE, new warfare methods can still destabilise the nation. There are a few weak points that must be guarded to avoid easy means of violent regime change.

Close to 20 heads of state have died from plane crashes the most recent was the Polish President in 2010. Following these tragic events violent protests break up aiding rebels. This is one area any violent regime change agent must be looking at in Sri Lanka. LTTE used Surface to Air Missiles (SAMs). These missiles can be donated to terrorist groups easily. They can be smuggled into the island with relative ease especially through the northern border that is violated daily. Once in the island, they can be fired with ease without any harm on the persons firing it. If a presidential plane or a helicopter is brought down, that essentially brings down the government. This possibility must be blocked by stringent military checks and modern counterflares on planes and helicopters used in VIP travel. Complacency after the annihilation of the LTTE should not lead to take risks.

Countering violent regime change tactics also involve retaliation. If a regime is changed violently by a group with aid from western governments, independent armed groups should be created well in advance. These groups can get into action when the new rebel government starts to loose its gloss. These groups should be provided with SAMs and small arms. Similar groups were used very successfully against the second JVP insurrection (1989) and against Tamil terror groups in the east in 1990. They operated in coordination with security forces. Certain types of attacks that are not traditionally carried out by a legitimate army can be delegated to these groups. Violent regime change cannot be met entirely through peaceful means. Violent means must be used to counter and re-change regimes that grab power using force.

One major drawback in the Libyan, Afghan and Syrian response to violence has been the inability to hunt down rebel leaders. In order to avoid this danger, all potential troublemakers should be identified. Access to them must be maintained at all times without allowing them to save themselves. If violence is unleashed against democratically elected governments, rebel leaders behind such violence should be handled without delay.

Conventional thinking does not offer solutions to modern problems facing small nations. By definition smaller nations are thought to be easily submissible. Driven by this mentality, powerful nations seeking regime change provide weapons to small groups within these nations to take on government troops. It is a matter of time since they tried these tactics in Sri Lanka after their peaceful means and conspiracies failed.

Peaceful existence of the nation demands the continuation of Long Range Recognisance Patrol (LRRP) and other deep space operators. Modern counter-insurgency trained combat troops are a must. Developed secret services with sufficient decentralisation and at the same time with required coordination are needed. However, these powers should not be used against peaceful and legitimate regime change activities which are a right of the people.

It is very likely that a rebellion that tried to grab power in the island will have the complete blessing of the LTTE Rump. It would be foolish to launch any violent attempt on the government that either goes against the LTTE Rump or ignores the vast resources it has. This makes it very difficult to control as the trouble will not concentrate on a city, district or province but will spread right throughout the country. At present there is a large military concentration on the north for good reasons. North still is the potentially most dangerous part of the country. However, rapid deployment capabilities must be maintained. Sufficient numbers of Mi-8, Mi-17 and Mi-24 military helicopters and military transport planes should be maintained to move a large number of armed troops within minutes to any part of the country. Distribution of food, medicine and access to hospitals and medical care should be strictly controlled by the government in case of a rebellion denying these to terrorist groups.

These means can not only overcome violent regime change operations but also deter them from recurring. It is foolhardy to think peaceful times will just continue without groups of psychopaths causing havoc. In fact peaceful times are more prone to violence! A look at the past 100 years indicates that all violent incidents that stopped the nation occurred during peaceful times. These include the riots of 1915, 1939, 1953, 1956, 1958, 1977, 1981 and 1983; insurgencies in 1971 and 1988-89 (when the IPKF engaged the LTTE and relative peace prevailed in areas outside the north and the east). Peaceful times are sure attractions for those who cannot fathom the idea of normalcy and economic development. If they launch their onslaughts during war, Emergency Regulations, public sentiment and the readiness of security forces work against them. That is why violence acts by nameless rebel groups take place during times of peace. Needless to say similar events around the world ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ…-inspireƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”š‚ these crackpots. Che Guvara inspired the JVP to launch their first insurrection and Palestinian terrorist groups inspired the LTTE.

Arabic Spring and other violent regime change events sweeping the world provide the ideal backdrop to any potential troublemakers in the island. Now is the time to be vigilant. There is a new enemy in the neighbourhood. In 2005 the then Indian High Commissioner Nirupama Rao made it no secret India expected a regime change at the Presidential Election. TNA leaders, UPF leader Chandrasekaran, UNP Jayalath and Mano Ganesan frequently travelled to Tamil Nadu during this time for obvious reasons. Similarly US ambassador Patricia Butenis hoped and worked tirelessly for regime change in 2010. Their failure to achieve it peacefully indicates violent means are now back on the table.