For some Sri Lankans, China’s presence in their country appears to be making a positive contribution to bilateral relations. China has contributed to Sri Lanka’s economy, building roads, ports, airports, a financial city, and more. Even during Sri Lanka’s war against terrorism, China provided the government with weapons and money. On the surface, this positive view appears to be correct. However, it is also true that China is not in Sri Lanka for the benefit of Sri Lankans, but for the sake of Chinese interests.

What kind of interests does China have in Sri Lanka? Perhaps economic opportunities? There are many economic opportunities in other parts of the world, so Sri Lankans should not over estimate the economic motivation. A more important motivation is strategic concerns, including security.

What security problems does China have? One example is Beijing’s ‘Malacca dilemma’. As China’s economic development depends on sea lines of communication (SLOCs) through the Malacca Strait, which the US Navy controls, Chinese economic development would come to a halt if the United States blockaded the strait. To solve this problem, China has created new energy and trade routes: Middle East-Pakistan-China, Middle East-Myanmar-China, and others. Nevertheless, Beijing still has cause for worry about its security needs in the Indian Ocean, and thus it decided to establish a presence in Sri Lanka.

China has begun construction of a port in Sri Lanka and is also constructing ports in other countries bordering the Indian Ocean, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Both the US and India refer to this as the ‘string of pearls’ strategy, while China says these projects are part of its One Belt, One Road (or Belt and Road) initiative.

Coco Islands in Myanmar

Recently, China has started to deploy its military forces in the region. In the Coco Islands in Myanmar, it set up a military facility to support naval deployment. In addition, Beijing has already established a huge naval base in Djibouti and deployed its warships and marines to the base. There were media reports about Chinese plans to set up a naval supply base in the Maldives, in Marao Atoll or on Gaadhoo Island in Laamu Atoll, just before the new Maldives Government was sworn in. The ports built as part of the One Belt, One Road initiative could also be used as naval supply bases. In 2014, Chinese submarines twice called at Colombo Port to show their influence in Sri Lanka, once during a visit by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in September and again in November. If the number of Chinese-built ports increases, Beijing can use them to show its influence. Furthermore, according to Indian naval chief Sunil Lanba, in January 2019, China was deploying between six and eight warships in the Indian Ocean at any given time. The number has increased drastically compared with the past.

China’s export of maritime and aerial weapons to this region has the same purpose. In 2016, Beijing delivered two submarines to Bangladesh and agreed to sell eight submarines to Pakistan, which will support Islamabad’s nuclear submarine programme. In addition, some media reports indicate that China will deploy their aircraft carrier under the name of ‘exporting to Pakistan.’ Beijing has also offered Sri Lanka JF-17 fighter jets. Once countries have accepted weapons from China, Beijing will deploy its officers to teach them how to use and intervene in maintenance and supply line, because sophisticated weapons require maintenance and ammunition. The recipients are dependent on their suppliers.

Chinese submarines

Indeed, these submarines are also an effective weapon for curbing other regional powers. If Chinese submarines hide in the Indian Ocean — or submarines that belong to countries in the region but are controlled by Chinese instructors — the US and India will need to mobilize their aircraft carriers very carefully. Submarines are a threat to SLOCs, which is why deployment of submarines, indicate who controls SLOCs. This is especially true in regard to nuclear deterrence, as hidden Chinese submarines are a threat to Indian strategic missile submarines, and thus this issue has a very great impact.

Is China’s strategy dangerous for Sri Lanka? If we look at China’s actions in the South China Sea, Sri Lanka has cause for worry. China occupied reefs and islands claimed by Vietnam or the Philippines when France, the Soviet Union, and the United States withdrew from the South China Sea between the 1950s and 1990s. Beijing’s strategy is like water, which in small quantities cannot move large rocks, but can penetrate if there is room and move the rocks. If China finds room to penetrate into Sri Lanka, this is a sign that it will dominate the country when its influence is great enough.

That is what happened when China demanded that Sri Lanka lease Hambantota Port for ninety-nine years. When Sri Lankans realise the sheer size of China’s investment, they will remember their strategy and avoid dependence on Beijing. Sri Lankans should cooperate with other countries, such as theUnited States, Japan, and India, to neutralize China’s influence so that it does not gain control over their country.