How many will die of coronavirus in the UK? A closer look at the numbers
Posted on March 14th, 2020
Courtesy The Guardian (UK)
What the statistics from the outbreak so far can tell us about infection and mortality rates
The startling spread of the coronavirus across the globe is causing understandable alarm. But though it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions about how many deaths may occur, the statistics do point to general trends that can get lost in the drama.
At present, one thing that does seem clear is that the vast majority of people who get the disease will survive.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated the mortality rate from Covid-19 is about 3.4%. That is higher than seasonal flu and is cause for concern – but even if it is correct, more than 96% of people who become infected with the coronavirus will recover.
Any death is, of course, devastating for the families involved. But it is also worth noting the WHO estimate is based on confirmed infections and deaths, meaning it does not take into account mild cases that may not be diagnosed – cases that would lower the mortality rate.
Indeed experts say that, in reality, the mortality rate is likely to be nearer to 1% or less. In other words, more than 99% of those who become infected are expected to survive
And not everyone will become infected. According to the chief medical officer for England, Prof Chris Whitty, the worst-case scenario is that about 80% of the UK population becomes infected. But that does not necessarily mean there will be 500,000 deaths – as would be expected from a 1% mortality rate.
March 15th, 2020 at 12:59 am
According to an expert who spoke on CNN on 13th this month there are two variants roaming the globe. And according to the same expert a variant with a slight mutation can become much more dangerous than the original. Perhaps we overcame the first one that came via China but got exposed to a new one coming from Italy and Iran. Looks like many EU fellows went from Wuhan carrying the virus and gave it to their countries.
According to the same expert some centuries ago one third of the entire population of European countries got wiped out. However the mortality in Italy and Iran seems to be about 10%. If the thing gets mutated again how much that can be?.
March 15th, 2020 at 1:47 am
Sorry, correction: the mortality rate in both Italy and Iran seems to be about 5% and not 10%.