Dilrook Kannangara

JVP first entered parliament under Sri Lanka Progressive Front label in 1994 winning just 1% of the vote and 1 seat. However, within just 7 years, the JVP increased its percentage to 9%. That is a staggering 9-fold increase in votes percentage. It came at the expense of SLFP votes.

At the last election the JVP managed 3.84%. If it increases 9-fold to 35% the JVP would stand a good chance of winning the presidential election. A party that achieved a rise in 9-fold can achieve it again. The SLFP camp is weaker today than in 2001 and is fragmented.

(Rise and rise of the JVP continued beyond 2001 as they won 20.69% of all votes at the 2004 parliamentary election. That’s a 21-fold increase from where they were in 1994. But it was a coalition. The point is the JVP has a history of increasing its votes percentage by large numbers in the past and it should not surprise anyone if it repeats those feats again. Not holding due LG and PC elections have masked people’s preferences making the outcome more shocking.)

Sources:

1994 JVP votes percentage 1.13%, 2001 JVP votes percentage 9.1%, Department of Elections

2004 JVP 20.69% is a calculation.

Number of seats won by the JVP was 36 (39 minus 3 national list seats).

Denominator is 174 total parliamentary seats. Total seats 225. National list 29 seats. District bonus seats 22. Total remaining seats 174. No JVP MP was elected from district bonus seats of the UPFA coalition. All were grabbed by People’s Alliance politicians.

When 36 is divided by 174 it is 20.69%