2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FORECAST
Posted on January 4th, 2015

BY M D P DISSANAYAKE

The total number of registered voters for the 2015 Presidential Election  will be 15,044,090.  In 2010  the registered voters stood at 14,088,500 and the valid votes obtained by all candidates reached 10,393,613  after allowing for the rejected votes.   Therefore, in  2010 the net participation rate of valid voters represented 74%. The 2015 net participation rate of valid voters are likely to be between 74-76% with a likelyhood of greater participation of voters in Northern and Eastern Provinces.

The following projections have been calculated on the basis of geographical and historical analysis of 2005  and 2010 results using statistical  analysis methods.

Eastern Province: Overall: MS 52% AND 48% MR

EP consisting Batticaloa, Digamadulla and Trincomalee are likely to favour Mr Maithreepala Sirisena (MS)  with 52% as against the incumbent President Mr Mahinda Rajapakse (MR) 48%. Traincomalee and Digamadulla are  likely to give distinct advantage to MS whereas  MR is expected to lead  marginally in Batticaloa .

Northern Province: Overall : 61% MS AND  39% MR

NP consisting Jaffna and Vanni will give distinct advantage to MS with a lead of 61% of the valid votes, compared with 39% to MR.
Central Province:Overall: 52% MR AND 48% MS

In CP consisting Kandy, Matale and Nuwaraeliya, MS is  likely to lead by about 2%  in Nuwaraeliya, whereas Kandy and Matale are likely to be lead by MR by 51% and 61% respectively.

Southern Province : Overall:69% MR AND 31% MS

In SP consisting Hambantota, Matara and Galle, MR is likely to lead between 65-68% of the valid votes.
Western province:Overall: 62% MR AND 32% MS

In WP consisting Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara,  MS  is likely to obtain 48%, 33% and 30% respectively, compared with MR leading by 52%, 67% and 70%.

North Western province:Overall:  69% MR AND 31% MS

NWP consisting Kurunegala and Puttalam are likely to be lead by MR with comfortable margins.

North Central Province:Overall: 68% MR AND 32% MS

NCP  consisting Anuradhapura and Pollonnaruwa will favour MR achieving nearly 65-68% of the valid votes.

Uva Province: Overall: 64% MR AND 36% MS

UP consisting Badulla and Monaragala are likely to give healthy lead to MR, particularly Monaragala giving almost 69-70%
Sabaragamuwa Province: Overall:  70% MR AND 30% MS

SP repesenting Ratnapira and Kegalle districts are likely to be lead by an overwhelming majority by MR.

These forecasts have been prepared using statistical standard deviation and with an standard error of  3% plus or minus.  In summary our forecast  is summarised as follows:

Worst case scenario to President Mahinda Rajapakse:62.28%

Worst   case scenario to Mr Maithreepala Sirisena     :34.61%

Best case scenario to President Mahinda Rajapakse: 65.39%

Best case scenario to Mr Maithreepala Sirisena:         37.72%

 

Chiran Jayathu Wewa!

3 Responses to “2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FORECAST”

  1. L Perera Says:

    Your forecast is very encouraging and we do hope you will be right on Jan 8. Also, I think that even if MR wins with a reduced majority it could be a blessing in disguise. With a reduced number of representatives the UPFA could reduce the number of Ministerial positions to the lowest possible and selecting the best candidates.

  2. Sarath W Says:

    Reduce majority for the president is not a bad outcome for the country as long as he has a decisive victory. It will be a message for him not to take the voters for granted like the late presidents Mubarak and Gaddafi did and led the western bullies to mislead their people. In his next term the president must do more for the rural Sinhala masses, not the ungrateful terrorist supporters.

    Sri Lankan voters, especially the rural Sinhala Buddhists who fought the LTTE terrorist will never let the western led traitors to destroy our country again. I hope the others will learn a lesson from them and unite to protect our mother land from those evil forces.

  3. Ananda-USA Says:

    This author’s PREDICTION is very close to mine based on personally acquired data which I made 1 MONTH ago: 62.5% for MR, 37.5% for MS!

    The gloom and doom Pundits in Colombo of course predict a close election. But, they were WRONG in 2010 and they are wrong NOW in 2015! The Common Patritic People of Sri Lanka will RE-ELECT Prresident Mahinda Rajapaksa by a near LANDSLIDE!

    BTW, where is our fast talking list-making pro-MS blogger Lorenzo and his alter-ego Independent? Have they defected from LankaWeb to Facebook and Twitter where they can fool all the uncritical people all the time?

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