DHARSHAN WEERASEKERA

It is not in dispute that if Hillary Clinton becomes the President of the U. S. the Sinhala-Buddhists in Sri Lanka are in serious trouble, because Hillary will help the Tamils get their Eelam here.  If Trump wins, U.S. policy towards Sri Lanka will fundamentally change (or at any rate such a change can be engineered) so the best option for the Sinhala-Buddhists to save their country is to help Trump win.

The mainstream media as well as the professional punditry in the U.S. are saying that Hillary is at present comfortably ahead in the race and on her way to victory.  But, it is no secret that the mainstream media along with the pundits are in Hillary’s camp.[1]  In my view, because of this blanket support, neither the polls nor the pundits can be trusted.  I suspect that the race at present is neck to neck.

One should also take into consideration the fact that, in practical terms, in order to win a U.S. Presidential election, one has to win a number of so-called ‘battleground’ States.   At each election, the number of such States varies, but usually there are about 5 to 6. If one considers elections in the recent past, other than 2000 (which was an exception) if an average of 50,000 votes in the battleground States taken as a whole had switched from one candidate to the other, it would have altered the outcome of the election.[2]

I am informed that research conducted by a private party has uncovered that, the ‘battleground’ States for the upcoming elections have significant pockets of Sinhala-Buddhist expatriates, or at any rate persons who support the cause of the Sinhala-Buddhists in Sri Lanka. In my view, Trump can lock-in a guaranteed bloc of 50,000 or more votes of the said expatriates if he goes on TV and makes a clear statement that:

1. He has heard that the Obama Administration (with Hillary as Secretary of State) has been unfairly targeting Sri Lanka, and if elected he will see to it that U.S. policy towards Sri Lanka is completely re-evaluated (he can’t say changed because of political reasons) but re-evaluated is clear enough.
2. He has also heard that Sri Lanka has been targeted unfairly at the UNHRC (again because of U.S. prodding) and that if elected he will initiate inquiries into these matters, and if anything untoward or illegal has been done, ensure that the wrongdoers are punished.

In my view, if Trump makes the above type of public statement, there are sufficient networks of the Sinhala-Buddhists and their supporters in the U.S. that they will get him the votes he needs in the relevant States.  I’ll now explain why I think a bloc of Sinhala- Buddhist votes can make the difference at this stage between victory or defeat for Trump.

In my view, Hillary’s tactical team is banking on getting a bloc of votes from the Diaspora Tamils, and they have made that a key element in their overall calculations with respect to victory in each of the States, including the ‘battleground’ States.

My reasons for this is are as follows.

First, it is the only way to explain the haste with which the constitution-making process is being pushed in Sri Lanka.  Changing the constitution is no longer a priority for most Sri Lankans:  they want the Government to address far more pressing problems, such as the cost of living, the daily revelations of corruption and waste, the incompetence and inefficiency in providing basic utilities such a water and electricity, and so on.

And yet, the Government has indicated that it will table the report of the Steering Committee on the new constitution in the first half of November.  Why such ungodly haste?  It is no secret that, behind the scenes, the Americans are running the constitution-making process here.  These Americans—Keshap, Powers, Malinowshi, et al. and their ‘errand girl’ Biswal—are Hillary’s people.  They will all be out jobs if Trump wins.

In my view, the report of the Steering Committee is being fast-tracked because of the deal between Hillary and the Diaspora Tamils:  the Tamils are to give her a guaranteed bloc of votes, and she, once elected, will do the needful in terms of Eelam.  In my view, the report is a ‘down-payment,’ to remind the Tamils that Hillary is meeting her end of the bargain, and it is time for them to meet theirs.

Second, V. Rudhrakumaran, the notorious separatist and self-styled ‘Prime Minister’ of the Trans National Government of Tamil Eelam, the most powerful Eelam-Lobby in the U.S. has given an interview, published among other places in the Huffington Post, where he lists the steps that the Diaspora Tamils expect the U.S. and the international community to take in order to help the Tamils in this country get Eelam. Why has this rascal picked this particular point in time to go public with this interview?

It should be noted that the Huffington Post is ‘Hillary land.’  Therefore, in my view, the only reason to go public with the interview in a forum such as the Huffington Post is, one, to remind Hillary’s supporters of their obligations; i.e. what is expected of them once Hillary wins, and two, to remind the ‘faithful’ (i.e. the Eelam fanatics) what they need to do at the upcoming elections, if they are to get Hillary to do the things that are set out.

In any event, the point is that Hillary’s tactical team has factored in the maximum number of Tamil votes into their calculations.  I am sure that they have also calculated the possible loss of a certain number of votes of Sri Lankan expatriates (i.e. Sinhala-Buddhists and their supporters) but they have probably concluded that those numbers are too insignificant to make any difference in the overall picture.

However, if there is a sudden increase in support for Trump among Sri Lankan expatriates, Hillary has no way to counter this.   As I mentioned earlier, Hillary is already expecting the maximum number votes from the Diaspora Tamils.   So, there is no source to which she can turn in order to cancel the increase of votes going to Trump from the Sri Lankan expatriates.

The 50,000 or so Sri Lankan expatriate votes that Trump will get, will come from three sources:  persons who had been planning on voting for Hillary but switch their support to Trump, persons who are noncommittal deciding to go with Trump, or persons who are planning on not voting at all, deciding to vote for Trump.

I understand that for many Sri Lankan expatriates, Trump is not an ideal candidate.  But, neither is Hillary.  In fact, it appears most people who are voting for Hillary are doing so because they think she is the lesser of two evils.  Under the circumstances, if Trump makes a strong statement in support of the Sinhala-Buddhists, I am confident that a sufficient number of Sri Lankan expatriates will do the needful, because of their abiding love for the ‘Old Country.’

For Trump, throwing in his lot with the Sinhala-Buddhists involves no risk at all.  His core supporters don’t care about Sri Lanka, in fact most of them probably won’t be able to locate Sri Lanka on a map.  So, supporting the Sinhala-Buddhists will not alienate his core constituency.  In short, Trump has everything to gain and nothing to lose by siding with the Sinhala Buddhists at this stage.  Is he crazy enough, or bold enough, to go with this plan?  In my view, probably’:  someone just has to pitch it to him.

Dharshan Weerasekera is an Attorney-at-Law.  His latest book, The Relevance of American Constitutional Principles to Solving Problems of Governance in Sri Lanka, will be in bookstores shortly.

[1] See for instance, ‘Trump Unchained,’ Mike Whitney, www.Counterpunch.org, 19 October 2016.  Whitney says, inter alia:  ‘When was the last time themedia thew 100% of its support behind one party’s presidential candidate?  Whatdoes that say about the media?’

[2] This conclusion is derived from information contained in, ‘How close were U.S. Elections?’ Michael Shepard, MIT, www.web.archive.org