My prediction on the August 5th General Election -Landslide victory for the SLPP and a white wash for the UNP and nemesis for all other political parties and Independent candidates
Posted on July 29th, 2020

Dr. Sudath Gunasekara Mahanuwara.

Before I present my updated write up on the above topic I give here my prediction made on the last Presidential Election on 14 Oct 2019 in an email I sent to Mr Gothabhaya Rajapaksa.

Your victory as well as that of the country is a foregone conclusion. I am repeating, you will be definitely starting with at least 65 lakhs the minimum that is what the SLPP, UPF and SLFP got at the 2018 Local Government Elections. Looking at the present trend no one should be surprised even if it exceeds 70 lahks.

(This is the introduction of an email sent to GR on 14.Oct 2019)

The accuracy of my prediction was proved   to the    very letter when he polled 6,924,255 votes and comprehensively won that election and I take pride in that forecast as I was the only man who said so. Many of my friends expressed their reservations on my conclusion. But I persistently maintained my conviction and finally it was proved correct.

Similarly I ammaking this prediction this time too on the upcoming General election after making a general survey of the political situation on ground by listening to people in the work place, paddy field and on the streets and media. In addition to the changes that have taken place over the past two weeks changes bound to occur in the behavior of the electorate between now and the 5th of August also have been taken in to consideration in arriving at this conclusion. This election is definitely going to be a historic land mark in the political history of this Island Nation and it will mark the beginning of a period of new political culture, the change people of this country are yearning for decades.

First of all I opine the next General Election is going to be an important historic land mark in the political history of this Island nation for the following reasons. The final result will be something unexpected by any. But definitely it will happen and it is destined to become a turning point in Lankan history.

The summary of my considered guess on the outcome of the election is given below

1The SLPP will emerge victorious with a landslide with 170 -175 or more out of 225 seats in the next Parliament (Eg 150-155 elected and 20 national list slots, the minimum)

 2 The UNP (Ranil and +Premadasa camps together) will get 35 or 40 (elected + national list)

3 TNA this time may get about 12 elected and 1 National list members

4 None of the JVP candidates will get elected. They might get 1 national list seat.

 5 Not a single Independent candidate will get elected and they all will forfeit their deposits.

This overall result is predicted on the basis of two sets of mutually exclusive factors coming in to play, one negative and the other positive. Both sets will have adverse negative effects on the present UNP and Samangi Balawegaya. It is very likely they might get completely wiped out at the end and the term UNP” in any case will be only past history thereafter. As the ongoing life and death battle between the two camps with no intelligent policy statements or pragmatic solutions to the burning problems of the people or the country with hardly any effective rebuttal against the achievements of government in power and the failure to offer any alternative to the people have already made both these camps dwarfs in the 2020 election battle. The harvest of their follies will be handsomely reaped by the SLPP, recording a landslide victory never expected by any, including even those of the SLPP and the President’s Office. It reminds me of the 1956 and 1977 election scenarios but with a marked difference. That is in both those   occasions the opposition re-emerged but this time there want be an opposition left behind as the UNP will disappear from the political map of this country as a political party. There is also absolutely no chance Saji’s Camp emerging either as an alternative as it is bound to disintegrate in to pieces after the election.

First let us look at the negative factors I mentioned above.

1This election is held after 5 years of complete anarchy and political bungling and economic mismanagement in this country under the ill-famed Sirisena–Ranil-Karu, the three headed Government. Going by the present situation in the country, the political environment at Home could be compared to a sinking and wrecking ship in mid seas caught by a giant Tsunami, sans a captain to rescue and navigate it in the proper direction.

2 We are going to have this election at a time when the country is beset by extremely serious crises in a plethora of political, economic and social fields never witnessed before in this country. 

3 The country is going through a serious economic depression after the nation’s Central Bank had been robbed by the then ruling UNP lead by its own leader, and subsequently the whole country paralyzed by extremist Muslim terrorist attacks on the nerve centers of the economy throughout the country, now in complete disarray and reached its lowest growth level in its 72 years of Independence. On the top of it is a time when the whole  world is undergoing one of the most difficult and unpredictable future due to the world wide Covid 19 pandemic that has almost crippled the whole world and brought it virtually on its knees almost to a non-returnable situation.

4 The country’s economy is also undergoing one of the most difficult times ever in its history more or less facing a national crisis level with no agricultural or industrial production and nor exports, where the main foreign exchange  inflow channels like foreign employment has almost got dried up

5 Scanty domestic FE reserves and worldwide economic depression and limitations and constraints on exports and imports due to global restriction on shipping and international trade mechanism and production in all sectors.

 6 Meanwhile continued interference in our domestic affairs and competition by powerful countries to take control of our strategic situation on the great E-W trade route in the Indian Ocean in view of its importance in the context of emerging supremacy of the Indo-Pacific zone in world politics and by various International agencies hostile to this country that are trying to create disunity among Sinahala, Tamil and Muslim communities within the country that  have created many a problem to this country.

Second on the positive side

In spite of this darker side, after 72 years of So-called Independence on the other hand, we as a nation have got a patriotic and strong Sinhala Buddhist Statesman in President Gothabhaya Rajapaksa as a man with a clear vision and a mission who has the proven capacity  to successfully face all these challenges of   multifaceted conundrum and take this country out of the Augean mess it has been put in to by all politicians who are supposed to have ruled this country for the past 72 years since the so-called Independence in 1948. 

None of them knew the kind of fake Independence they got in 1948. As I see it none of them knew that the kind of Independence given by the British was only a transfer of continuation of the same British governance to a local set of kalu Suddhas to run the country as their proxy. This is exactly what we are doing even today. But the brainless politicians call it Independence. The true Bhumiputras of this country, that is Sinhala Buddhists expect at least Gothabhaya Rajapaksa the new President to make this country a fully pledge Independent and sovereign State after this election.  This perhaps is the priority number one, the people of this country expects from him. This long overdue political   strategy forms the cornerstone of all the rest like economic and social development as an Independent sovereign and free country.

1 Going by his past record as the Secretary of the Ministry of Defense, as to how he defeated the LTTE and how he converted Colombo to be recognized as the best City in Asia within four years after the war are enough testimonies for his ability and leadership as a task master. His peerless success in these two fields almost made him the Sinhala Buddhist benevolent Statesman with no peers overnight; the nation was desperately looking for seven decades. That is why the whole nation almost unanimously got him elected as the 8th President of this Island nation with 6,924,255 votes that gave him an unprecedented majority of 1,360,016 in spite of numerous false and vicious conspiracies and intrigues’ relentlessly deployed against him until the last moment by anti-national ant-Sinhala forces both from within the country and outside the shores to prevent him from getting even nominations. All such attempts were successfully foiled and finally truth prevailed, justice won and he got him elected as the 8th President of this country to the overwhelming joy of the Sinhala nation at last.

The way how he has conducted in office as well as in personal life since he was sworn in front of the Ruwanwelimahaseya and his short but dignified speech from the hallowed precincts of the Great Stupa reminded me ancient traditions of our great Kings who swore in in front of the Mahasangha to rule the Lankan Kingdom according to the Dasaraaja Dhamma. How he set about thereafter by ordering not to exhibit his photo in Government offices, reducing his staff, and even security and banning all state tamasas, reducing the Cabinet to 17 and his simple dress and manners has won the admiration and the hearts of the masses. How he managed the Covid 19 pandemic when even countries like USA have miserably failed, has already made him the most outstanding national leader the post Independent Sri Lanka has produced. The majority in the country are unanimous on this consensus. For them he is already a national idol and a hero as well. For the poor and those deprived of their daily bread due to the Covid 19 disaster, the food basket and the 5000 payment given was manna from heaven in their difficult times.  As for me I see in him as the legendary Diyasena eulogized in Perakumbasirita by Sri Thotagamuve Rahula Thera at last born to rescue this thrice blessed Punyabhuumi, by Lord Buddha.

All these actions on his part have convinced the masses that at last after 72 years of so-called Independence they have got a Patriotic and honest Sinhala Buddhist task master Statesman of proven ability and unblemished character beyond any doubt in Gothabahaya Rajapaksa, as the Head of State they have been looking for decades.

2 At the same time there is an unprecedented emerging unity among the Sinhala nation from west to East and North to South and from the sea to mountain tops throughout the country with no regard what so ever to their differences like caste, creed and religion as one nation.

3 A towering sense of belonging together also has emerged among the people of the country as one nation due to the exemplary leadership of Maha Sangha in unison and Catholic clergy headed by His Eminence Cardinal Malcom Ranjit Fernando.

4 The splitting of the main opposition party UNP and infighting within it for personal gain and glory rather than the concern for the people and the vituperative speeches thrown at each party have left the grass root UNPers dismayed, frustrated, disillusioned and high and dry. Majority of UNPers have already realized that hanging on to UNP an already a sunken ship will not take them anywhere under these circumstances. In sum all of them know pretty well that there is virtually no UNP as an alternative Political party that can come to power ever in the foreseeable future. It is already dead and buried under six feet, thanks to Ranil and Sajit Premadasa. No one will hear about the UNP after 5th of August.

5 The patriotic younger generation looking for change and new hopes getting attracted by this new leadership qualities displayed by Gota have already got rallied round him

6 Nationwide hope and the dream for political stability under a joint partnership between the proven and able leadership qualities of the Rajapaksa brothers specially the charismatic MR and proactive and dynamic Gota the task master who does not tolerate humbug and who has aptly proved his capacity in his war against the savages LTTE, as the Defense Sec of the country and as the President of the country from the day he was elected as  the President and more particularly as to how he rescued the nation form the Covid 19 pandemic when almost all world leaders have failed has made the people confident  that they have got the leadership they were looking for decades who can rescue this country out of the political, economic and Social mess in to which successive Governments have dumped it.

7 The newly emerging wave and the sense of patriotism and Sinhala Buddhist nationalism gathering momentum around this new leadership supported by the Three Forces, Professionals, Civil Servants and the Six National Forces Sanga, Veda, Guru, Govi-kamkaru and Ranaviru and the youth votes around the country brimming with new hope and power like a multi barrel war machine rolling across the battle field are taking the lead for nation building under the new President.

 At the same time we see all round auspicious sings like anti-national elements getting caught and exposed daily clearing the way for the nation to march forward without any obstacles.

In this most encouraging and welcome backdrop the Pohottuwa will emerge victorious in a landslide victory unheard and unseen in the political history of post Independent Sri Lanka. I predicted SLPP 69-70  lakhs at the last Presidential poll and Gota polled 6,924,255. Based on the same argument at this election the SLPP should get it increased to at least 80 lakhs of votes taking in to account ground reality factors like the defections from the UNP, JVP, Tamil and Muslim votes and new youth segment, who are seriously looking for a complete change in Sri Lankn politics. Therefore the SLPP should bag at least 150t-155 out of 196 elected seats and therefore it will bag at least 20 national list pin slots as well, making the total to stand around 175 since the UNP disarrayed factions together are very unlikely to get even 25 lakhs this time as against the 5,564,239 Premadasa polled at the Presidential election. Both Ranila nd Sajith camps will get at least 2,500,000 less than what he got at the Presidential election.

1 On the other hand substantial number out of UNP floating voters will also vote with the Pohottuwa this time as they are convinced that there is no point in betting a losing horse. The disgusted UNP hard liners will boycott elections and that will also drastically reduce the UNP votes. The JVP as usual will get eliminated at this election for their sins they have committed to this nation and they are also very unlikely to get any national list slots either. The chances of UNP getting Thodamans votes is also not there at this election as Mahinda has played his cards well, the SLPP will get a majority of Estate Tamil votes. Estate Tamil votes not going to SLPP getting divided between R and S will also unlikely to make any significant impact over the overall results. But even if those brainless Sinhala Budhhist UNPers who are suffering from chronic and incurable UNP constipation syndrome fail to realize the gravity and the seriousness of the crime they are going to commit against the Sinhala nation and the Sinhala Buddhist civilization in this country by voting an anti-Sinhala, anti-Buddhist and anti-national force, that is UNP, that is now fast disintegrating and disappearing as a national political force in no time from the surface of this land. Under these circumstances no force either at Home or abroad can stop the victory of the Sinhala Buddhist forces led by Rajapaksas at this election. There is a likelihood of all Sinhala forces drifting towards this historic goal. I have a deep feeling all forces will merge and coalesce to emerge as one giant national force to rescue this Land of the Buddha on the 5th of August.

Under these circumstances, even though there is going to be a substantial drop in the voter turnout, no one can stop the MR Camp getting a 2/3 majority in the 2020 Parliament.  It will go down in history as the biggest electoral victory ever in the post Independent Sri Lanka by any political Party. As for me, I am fully confident that this miracle will happen on the 5th of August, the results of which will be obvious by the 6th evening.

Taking the above situation as a stimulant and a blessing in disguise the whole nation should rise in unison as a mighty force in one roar like the Phoenix from ashes under the new patriotic and vibrant leadership of President Rajapaksa to march forward as one united and determined nation

Thereafter it is left for Gothabhaya and Mahinda to lay the firm foundation to rescue this country and the Sinhala Nation from all misdeeds and misfortunes committed by all the previous Governments since 1948.

Now what all of us, the patriotic people of this country have to do is to give the President a clear and stable Government by voting the SLPP en-block at the forthcoming election to enable to have a strong government exceeding 2/3 majority under MR in Parliament to carry out the Presidents avowed mission by the nation and our motherland.

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