GENERAL ELECTION OF SRI LANKA – FORECAST FOR AUGUST 2020-SLPP TO SECURE 2/3 MAJORITY
Posted on July 30th, 2020

By M D P DISSANAYAKE

The election to be held on 5 August 2020 on all counts appear to be a lack lustre event.  The Sri Lankans are generally used to massive media campaigns, bill boards, cut-outs and public rallies accommodating hundreds of thousands of supporters. 

These campaigns have energised the political parties and its leaders whilst providing much needed euphoria as a solid return on investment on cost of media blitz.  These propaganda activities also provided stiff competition, encouraging larger voter turnout on the election day.

The covid 19 has virtually killed the Sri Lankan style of electioneering.  To make matters worse, the oldest political party, the United National Party is split, making traditional UNPers to look for Elephant symbol after a long time wanting to vote for the UNP, but likely to cross UNP as the preferred party, but painfully looking for Sajith Premadasa’s  candidates with the Telephone and vice versa.

With a low turnout expected as a result of above factors, this election most likely to record a high percentage of rejected votes, as a consequence of Elephant and Telephone.

The following popular political personalities are unlikely to win a seat at the election: Rev Athureliya Rathana,  Sujeewa Senasinghe, Ravi Karunanayke, Patali Champaka Ranawaka. Hirunika Premachandra, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Duminda Dissanayake, Weerakumara Dissanayake, Ranjan Ramanayake, Arjuna Ranatunga, Vijitha Herath,  Chandima Weerakkody,  Palitha Ranga Bandara, Kumara Welgama, Sarath Fonseka, Rajitha Senaratne, Chathura Senaratne, Ajith P Perera, Palitha Thewarapperuma, Dayasiri Jayasekera, P Harrison,

The following forecast was prepared taking into account above limiting factors, with a margin of error of +/- 3%.   The  newly formed SLPP is likely to secure a tight 2/3 majority.

SLPP UNP/SJB TNA
CENTRAL PROVINCE:
KANDY 8 4  
MATALE 3 2  
NUWARAELIYA 5 3
EASTERN PROV.
BATTICALOA    1 4
DIGAMADULLA 4 2
TRINCOMALEE 2          1 1
NORTHERN PROV.
JAFFNA 1         1 5
WANNI 2                              4
SOUTHERN PROV
GALLE 9                 1
MATARA                                                    7         1
HAMBANTHOTA             6                 1
WESTERN PROV.
COLOMBO                                                           13        6
GAMPAHA         15                   3
KALUTARA 8             2
NTH WEST. PROV
KURUNEGALA 13            2
PUTTALAM     5       3
NTH CENTRAL PROV
ANURADHAPURA 8            1
POLONNARUWA 4      1
UVA PROV.
BADULLA                                                 6           3
MONERAGALA 4     1
SABARAGAMUWA
RATNAPURA 10         1
KEGALLE 8          1
TOTAL TO BE ELECTED 142   40       14 196
NATIONAL LIST                               21 6           2   29
GRAND TOTAL 163 46       16 225

  PERCENTAGE SEATS %                   72%     20%        8%

The Sajith Premadasa camp may secure 28 seats as against Ranil to settle down for 18 seats.

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