BY M D P DISSANAYAKE

The total number of registered voters for the 2015 Presidential Election  will be 15,044,090.  In 2010  the registered voters stood at 14,088,500 and the valid votes obtained by all candidates reached 10,393,613  after allowing for the rejected votes.   Therefore, in  2010 the net participation rate of valid voters represented 74%. The 2015 net participation rate of valid voters are likely to be between 74-76% with a likelyhood of greater participation of voters in Northern and Eastern Provinces.

The following projections have been calculated on the basis of geographical and historical analysis of 2005  and 2010 results using statistical  analysis methods.

Eastern Province: Overall: MS 52% AND 48% MR

EP consisting Batticaloa, Digamadulla and Trincomalee are likely to favour Mr Maithreepala Sirisena (MS)  with 52% as against the incumbent President Mr Mahinda Rajapakse (MR) 48%. Traincomalee and Digamadulla are  likely to give distinct advantage to MS whereas  MR is expected to lead  marginally in Batticaloa .

Northern Province: Overall : 61% MS AND  39% MR

NP consisting Jaffna and Vanni will give distinct advantage to MS with a lead of 61% of the valid votes, compared with 39% to MR.
Central Province:Overall: 52% MR AND 48% MS

In CP consisting Kandy, Matale and Nuwaraeliya, MS is  likely to lead by about 2%  in Nuwaraeliya, whereas Kandy and Matale are likely to be lead by MR by 51% and 61% respectively.

Southern Province : Overall:69% MR AND 31% MS

In SP consisting Hambantota, Matara and Galle, MR is likely to lead between 65-68% of the valid votes.
Western province:Overall: 62% MR AND 32% MS

In WP consisting Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara,  MS  is likely to obtain 48%, 33% and 30% respectively, compared with MR leading by 52%, 67% and 70%.

North Western province:Overall:  69% MR AND 31% MS

NWP consisting Kurunegala and Puttalam are likely to be lead by MR with comfortable margins.

North Central Province:Overall: 68% MR AND 32% MS

NCP  consisting Anuradhapura and Pollonnaruwa will favour MR achieving nearly 65-68% of the valid votes.

Uva Province: Overall: 64% MR AND 36% MS

UP consisting Badulla and Monaragala are likely to give healthy lead to MR, particularly Monaragala giving almost 69-70%
Sabaragamuwa Province: Overall:  70% MR AND 30% MS

SP repesenting Ratnapira and Kegalle districts are likely to be lead by an overwhelming majority by MR.

These forecasts have been prepared using statistical standard deviation and with an standard error of  3% plus or minus.  In summary our forecast  is summarised as follows:

Worst case scenario to President Mahinda Rajapakse:62.28%

Worst   case scenario to Mr Maithreepala Sirisena     :34.61%

Best case scenario to President Mahinda Rajapakse: 65.39%

Best case scenario to Mr Maithreepala Sirisena:         37.72%

Chiran Jayathu Wewa!