Courtesy The Daily Mirror

Oceanic Pivot: As Diego Garcia becomes a frontline target, Washington turns its gaze toward Colombo’s strategic neutrality

Iran’s apparent use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles in the attack has startled the West, showing a reach far longer than the medium-range capabilities previously assumed.”

The shifting tides of the Indian Ocean have placed Sri Lanka at the heart of a high-stakes geopolitical gambit. As Iran’s intermediate-range ballistic missiles successfully challenge the perceived invulnerability of the UK-US base at Diego Garcia, the Pentagon faces a crisis of geography and diplomacy. With British Prime Minister Keir Starmer wavering under the shadow of Operation Epic Fury,” the strategic necessity for an alternative regional foothold has never been more acute. Recent rebuffed requests for US fighter jets to land at Mattala Airport underscore a tightening knot: Washington is no longer just observing Sri Lanka—it is eyeing it as a vital insurance policy against a fractured Chagos lease and an increasingly long-reaching Tehran.

Iran’s targeting of the UK-US military base on Diego Garcia island becomes the second incursion into the Indian Ocean since the US-Israel war on Iran began – the first being the sinking of the Iranian ship IRIS Dena by a US submarine off the coast of Sri Lanka, on March 4. Iran’s apparent use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles in the attack has startled the West as it showed Iran has missiles with a far longer reach than the medium-range missiles it was thought to have. With the UK wavering over permission for the use Diego Garcia, is the US eyeing Sri Lanka – another strategically located island in the Indian Ocean – as a potential alternative foothold in the region? US interest in Sri Lanka on account of its strategic location is nothing new, but recent events have brought the issue sharply into focus. 

Diego Garcia, the largest island in the British colonial territory of Chagos Archipelago – has housed a massive joint UK-US military base since the 1960s. Iran fired two ballistic missiles targeting the base following a re-set of UK’s position regarding the use of its bases in the war. The UK  said yesterday the bases could be used for strikes on Iranian sites targeting the Strait of Hormuz,” the BBC reported, on March 21. UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer had adopted different positions on the matter twice already. When the US-Israel attacks on Iran first started Feb. 28, he had opposed the use of UK’s military bases, making a statement in parliament on UK’s decision ‘not to get involved in international strikes.’ But the very next day (March 01), the BBC’s live blog reported him saying that permission had now been given for defensive” strikes on Iranian missile sites from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.” The position finally adopted on March 20, allowing strikes on Iranian sites targeting the Strait of Hormuz, signaled UK’s participation in ‘Operation Epic Fury,’ and seemed to set the stage for Iran’s attempted missile strike on the base.

Before Mauritius gained independence in 1968, the Chagos Islands had been separated from it by Britain. The move was held to be illegal in a 2019 ruling by the International Court of Justice in the Hague, that recommended their return.  In May last year, Prime Minister Starmer had signed an agreement whereby sovereignty over Chagos Islands was to be returned to Mauritius, with Diego Garcia to be immediately leased back to the UK for 99 years. The deal was about to be made into law, when US President Donald Trump urged the UK not to proceed with it. According to available information, it appears the bill is stalled. 

Self-fulfilling prophecy?

Trump had conveyed his displeasure with the UK a full month earlier, in a post on truthsocial.com Feb. 19, ending in capital letters ‘DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!’ At the time, he said: Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime — An attack that would potentially be made on the United Kingdom, as well as other friendly Countries.” 

Could Trump’s prophecy become self-fulfilling? 

With Britain giving permission for the use of Diego Garcia to strike Iranian targets, Iran’s foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi posted on ‘X’, saying: 

Vast majority of the British People do not want any part in the Israel-US war of choice on Iran. Ignoring his own People, Mr Starmer is putting British lives in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against Iran. Iran will exercise its right to self defense. (12.37am – 21 March 2026)

When Araghchi warned that Iran will exercise its right to self defense,” what he was saying was, if a UK base is used to target Iran, Iran will hit back at the UK. The trajectory of the war has made it clear that when Iran makes a warning, the threatened action is carried out, unlike some of Trump’s bombastic threats. 

Days after the US-Israel strikes started, Trump complained, at a joint White House press briefing with German Chancellor Frederik Merz, that he was ‘not happy with the UK’ which, at that point in time, had not lifted the veto on striking Iranian sites. They didn’t allow us to use that island that you read about,”  he said, without naming it.  The lease – for whatever reason he made a lease of the island – somebody came and took it away from him – and it’s taken three-four days for us to find out where we can land.. It would’ve been much more convenient landing there, instead of flying many extra hours, so we’re very surprised,” he said, adding the much-reported line This is not Winston Churchill we’re dealing with.”

US envoy visits

So it’s clear, Diego Garcia had been part of Trump’s war plan from the start, to carry out bombing raids on Iran. The base had earlier been used by the US to launch long range missile attacks against Iraq and Afghanistan. The missiles fired by Iran – neither of which reached their target – are believed to have been intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) which are said to have a range between 3000 and 5500 km. One was reported to have failed in midflight, while an interceptor had been fired at the other from a US warship. Whether the interception fully succeeded remains unconfirmed” according to the Indian Express. Be that as it may, the targeting of Diego Garcia, 4000km away, has caused concern among Iran’s attackers.  

Is it a coincidence that Commander of the US Pacific Fleet, Admiral Stephen Koehler visited Sri Lanka from 19 – 21 February? The US embassy issued a press release the same day, saying the visit was to highlight the strategic importance the United States places on Sri Lanka’s role at the crossroads of global maritime routes and underscores our shared long-term commitment to a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.” (emphasis added) President Anura Kumara Dissanayake did not meet the USPACOM chief, who only met military officials. 

From 19-24 March US Special Envoy (the US ambassador to India) Sergio Gor was in Colombo, and did meet President Dissanayake. But apart from an ‘X’ post by the president, with a formal ‘handshake photo,’ there was little other publicity regarding this visit on the Sri Lankan side. 

Request to use Mattala Airport

The emphasis in the US press releases on ‘sea lanes’ and ‘maritime routes’ is of interest, given the backdrop of  conflict in the Gulf. It’s also notable that these visits were arranged when attacks on Iran and counter attacks in the Gulf had peaked. (Israel hit Iran’s South Pars – part of the world’s largest natural gas field – and Tehran retaliated with strikes on Ras Laffan LNG complex in Qatar and other energy targets in the Gulf, during this period.)

President Dissanayake made a revelation in parliament on March 20, when he said that on Feb. 26 – the same day that the government received a request from three Iranian ships to make goodwill visits on March 9th and 13th – there was a request also from the US for two fighter aircraft, that he said were near Djibouti, to be allowed to land at Sri Lanka’s Mattala International Airport. Even at that time there were signs of imminent war. We took the position of protecting our country’s neutrality (‘madyastha bhavaya’). We turned down both requests” he said. 

The US has already made an unwelcome military incursion in the Indian Ocean, to sink a ship thousands of kilometres away from the Gulf, in international waters just 19 nautical miles from Sri Lanka, within its E.E.Z. 

Any use of Diego Garcia to launch attacks against Iran will be responded to in a way that will extend the geography of the war with unpredictable consequences. A strike from a UK base will drag Europe into a conflict that has already spun out of control. 

Diego Garcia