KAMALIKA PIERIS
The United
State of America is getting ready for war in the Bay of Bengal and plans to
drag Sri Lanka into that war to fight on behalf of USA. Sri Lanka does not
welcome this. We are caught up in this
power game between India, China and the US because of our geostrategic location,
complained Sri Lanka.
In the coming
years, Sri Lanka, like the other states in the Bay of Bengal will be forced to pick a side as China–U.S.
relations continue their downward spiral, said analysts. They will have to choose, but they all want to avoid taking sides.
There
are just two possibilities for Sri
Lanka in this matter. Sri Lanka can try to sit this out. Wait till the threat
of war fizzles out. That is a sound possibility. It
is unlikely that US and China are headed toward military confrontation any time
soon, said Ian Brenner in TIME (January 2021). The gap between US and China’s
military is narrowing. Gone are the days when a warning from Washington was
enough. The Covid 19 pandemic would have also upset the financial plans
of the Neo cons who mastermind these wars.
USA is still
in shock after the storming of the Capitol. This event has been recognized as a symptom of deep
divisions in USA. The division is so deep that some members of Congress are
opposing a second impeachment of Trump. We already have a flaming fire in this
country and the impeachment is like pouring gasoline on it, said one US
Senator.
Big
Business however, is taking a strong line. USA’s blue chip companies said they
would halt campaign donations to Congressmen who had voted
to halt the Presidential elections. Some companies are not going to
donate to either Republican or Democratic Party. CEOs of the nation’s biggest corporations
said they would not invest in the states of ‘seditious Congressmen.’
The
division in the US has seeped down to churches and families, said TIME.
Families and Churches have been deeply divided by Trumpism, TIME said. US
economy still continued to be in difficulties, made worse by the Covid
pandemic. The
USA will soon have two Presidents, pulling in opposite directions. The news has
just come in that Trump has set up an Office of Former President.
The international image of the US, which was
always poor, is now even worse. US policy is to make countries dependent on
them rather than improve the quality of life in those countries, said
critics. At the NBC coverage of the Biden inauguration,
one reporter stated that 1 in 3 Europeans
thought US cannot be trusted.
China said that
since 2001, the US has spent over $6 trillion on military operations and war,
money that might have been invested in the infrastructure at home. China
meanwhile, built its nation pouring more cement every three years than America
did in the entire twentieth century.
USA
however is still dreaming of a possible war. US would like to enlist Sri Lanka
into this war.
US has decided to woo Sri Lanka using India. India and
USA have one thing in common. They both believe in antagonizing the countries
they wish to dominate.
But in this
case, India has persuaded the local media to draw
attention to India. The local newspapers are suddenly full of India. India’s education system, India’s
constitution, India’s billionaires, India’s freedom fighters, Indian judgments
on contempt of court and the new India-Sri Lanka
Friendship logo.
However,
we need not be intimidated by India, said K Godage. Sri Lanka
does not have a land border with India, making it more independent that most
other SAARC countries. Also Sri Lanka found during Eelam war IV,
that India’s support is not essential
for Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka says it plans to stay neutral in any future US –China war. It is possible to stay
neutral only as long as the US-China War is a War of Words. But if it
becomes an armed conflict, then Sri Lanka
cannot stay neutral, it will have to take sides. Countries which are physically
in the war zone can never stay neutral. Switzerland and Thailand, are popularly
supposed to have been neutral in World War II. They were not neutral. They
struck deals with both sides. (See Appendix 1 and 2)
If war breaks
out Sri Lanka will have to choose between US and China. Yahapalana government tilted
towards USA and India, at time when the US is declining and India turns out to
be a non-starter. A country is expected
to link with the rising power not the fading power. US is fading, China is
the emerging power. Pohottu should link
with China.
LSSP also
thinks so. Under no circumstances should Sri Lanka support USA military
aggression against China, said LSSP.
Pakistan has taken China’s side and Sri Lanka too must do the same, Philippines
President Duterte has said that he is not ready to go to war with China. European Union led by Germany has recognized
that China is only interested in trade, and it is refusing to support the USA’s
military attack on China, continued LSSP.
What right
has the USA to claim that China poses a military danger to it, when its
boundaries are thousands of miles away? It is the USA that has over 400
military bases around China, while China has only one outside its boundaries”, said
LSSP. The SOFA agreement would have allowed thousands of armed troops from the
USA to use the whole of Sri Lanka as a military base.
LSSP appeals
to the Government to take a non-aligned stance and support China concluded
LSSSP, happily ignoring the fact that
you cannot be ‘non-aligned’ and ‘supportive’ at one and the same time.
CA
Chandraprema called for a Defence Pact with China.
Trincomalee and Hambantota should be full of Chinese warships, he said. USA
anticipated this. Hambantota Port might soon become a forward military
base for China’s growing blue-water navy, complained USA, or dual use
commercial/military facility. In 2019, Sri
Lanka said No. China has control over
Hambantota port but it does not have rights to build a naval facility there.
China is
blooming. China is the only one of the big economies that did not shrink in
2020. China’s gross domestic product expanded 6.5% in the fourth quarter of
2020, making the country one of the few to register positive growth for 2020.
The Asian Development Bank says Asia will need US$ 16 trillion for
infrastructure development between 2020 and 2030. China is the only country
that has such money, pointed out Colombage.
China continues
to leap ahead. China had published more high impact research papers than US in
23 of 30 ‘hot’ research fields, said Economist. This finding came from a 2019
survey by Elsevier and Nikkei . China in 2020 had more powerful supercomputers
than any other nation. It had 214
supercomputers, compared with 113 for the US and 91 for the EU.
China is home
to the world’s largest high-speed rail network, which stretches over 37,000
kilometers, and the fastest commercially operating train, the Shanghai Maglev. China
has developed a prototype for a new
high-speed Maglev (magnetic levitation) train that is capable of reaching
speeds of 620 kilometers (385 miles) per hour. The train runs on
high-temperature superconducting (HTS) power that makes it look as if the train
is floating along the magnetized tracks. The sleek 21-meter-long (69 feet)
prototype was unveiled at Chengdu, in January 2021.
China has
also developed a new high-speed bullet train designed for extremely cold
climates.
The CR400AF-G
train, which can operate at speeds of up to 350 kilometers per hour (217 mph)
in temperatures as low as -40 degrees Celsius (-40 degrees Fahrenheit), is part
of the Fuxing series of high-speed electric multiple-unit (EMU) trains
developed and operated by the state-owned China State Railway Group.
A number of
countries, including Egypt, UAE, Jordan,
Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Turkey, Bahrain, Dubai, Seychelles, are using the
COVID-19 vaccines produced by China. And many more countries, including Chile,
Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and
Nigeria have ordered Chinese vaccines, said China.
China, unlike
the USA is already at war. China needs the trade routes across the Indian Ocean and
intends to protect them. India is not an exporting nation the way China is,
observed Chandraprema.
US sent an aircraft carrier group sailing between Taiwan and the Philippines
into the South China Sea. China immediately
sent large groups of fighters and bombers into
Taiwanese airspace two days in a row. This was not illegal, said Gwynne
Dyer. The Chinese aircraft only entered Taiwan’s unilaterally declared
“Air Defence Identification Zone”, which is not sovereign Taiwanese
territory.
India and
China have, according to reports, mobilized troops and tanks all along the 3488
km Line of Control from Ladakh to Arunchal Pradesh. The aggressor is China. China has constructed
a settlement of 101 houses, inside
Indian Territory in Arunachal Pradesh. There was no such village in satellite
images taken in August 2019. They appeared
in images taken in November 2020 .
China
has also
tried to enter Indian
Territory in Sikkim twice, first in May
2020 . In January 2021 troops again tried to cross the border into Indian territory,
near Naku La. There was a brawl and
soldiers on both sides were injured.
India approached the Seychelles in 2020, with a
proposal to build a military facility on Assumption Island, which will include
an airstrip, naval jetty and a garrison of 500. There was a
strong protest against it and the proposal was abandoned. China
however, has a presence in Seychelles. China has built a new Parliament
building and a Supreme Court in the Seychelles. China has
also
donated two light aircraft and two naval vessels.
Sri Lanka has
always had a cordial relationship with China. China and Sri Lanka have had long
standing diplomatic, religious and trade links. There were cordial diplomatic relations between the
Sinhala king and the Chinese emperor in ancient and medieval times. This was an
unbroken relationship which continued through various Chinese dynasties. A Chinese
coin from a particular dynasty, which is rarely found in foreign countries was
found in Sri Lanka .
The Buddhist
link is well known, with Fa Hsien coming here and Sinhala bhikkunis going there
to advise on Buddhism, probably Mahayana. Sinhala ships went to China. They received special mention in the Chinese records. It was said that of all the ships coming
to China, the stairways in the Sinhala ships were the biggest.
We were able to end the Eelam war because China threw its weight behind
us and sent us the required arms. It was China that supplied much
needed weapons, at a time when Western countries refused to do so citing human
rights concerns, recalled Sri Lanka . China has always supported Sri Lanka at
UN and HRC. Only China condemned India
when India did its parippu drop in 1987 violating Sri Lanka airspace.
In 2009, when
the war ended, India and Japan funded important projects, but the main support
was from China. If we did not take what China offered, today, 11 years on we would
be still be where we were in 2009, said Colombage.
China had
helped financially from the time of the Eelam war and much of this was grants
and not loans. The loans also were low
interest and affordable. China is offering trillions of dollars which no other
country can match, but they do not bully us. When the west helps it leads to
bankruptcy as in the case of Greece, said Palitha Kohona.
Present day
Sri Lanka recognizes modern Chinese culture. When University of Colombo held
its 100th anniversary celebrations in January 2021, Faculty of Arts
had a research session on ’Understanding Chinese language and culture.
China has been very supportive of Sri Lanka and very encouraging.
China told Sri Lanka in 2016 You have
65,000 kilometers of land. You always say a small island country. No. Sri
Lanka is a big country. It is a great country. You have good culture. You have
long history. You have a legal system. Education is okay. You should be proud
of the culture, history and your country’s conditions. So why do you call
yourself a tiny island”.
The rise of
China has seriously challenged the unipolar orientation of international
relations, but the world must now come to terms with China. Western countries cannot continue to treat
China as an outcast and do its utmost to undermine its development and
influence, said analysts. They must realize that trying to contain and confront
China is a waste of time. It is hoped that West will adjust to China’s new
assertive and confident style and accept peaceful coexistence with a powerful
China, analysts said. On that hopeful note,
I end this set of essays on the US-China war. (Continued).
APPENDIX NO 1
Switzerland is well known for its supposed neutrality in WWII. It
was never neutral. Germany planned to invade and annex Switzerland, but got
diverted elsewhere. Skirmishes between German and Swiss troops took place on
the northern border of Switzerland throughout the war.
Both sides
violated Swiss airspace. 6,304 Allied aircraft violated Swiss airspace during
the war. Nazi Germany repeatedly violated Swiss airspace. During the Battle of France, German
aircraft violated Swiss airspace at least 197 times.
Switzerland
served as an espionage camp for both sides. In 1942, the United States
established the Office of Strategic Services in the city of Bern. Switzerland
turned back or deported over 20,000 Jewish refugees during the Second World War
but did take in over 50,000 refugees, mostly rich Jews.
Switzerland
continued trading with Germany through the war. Germany became the main market
for Swiss weapons components. Germany became the largest importer of Swiss
goods including specialized items such as time fuses. Swiss companies made fat
profits from this. Export credit given to Germany meant Switzerland was
actively financing the Nazi war machine.
Switzerland
helped finance Hitler’s war. Swiss banks loaned money to German enterprises
which were involved in armaments.
Between 1940 and 1945, Germany sold 1.3 billion francs worth of gold to
Swiss Banks. A total of 581,000 francs’ worth of gold taken from Holocaust victims was
sold to Swiss banks.
APPENDIX NO 2
Thailand in World War II was never neutral. Instead
it achieved the rare feat of supporting and attacking both sides, and gaining
from both. Japan invaded Thailand in December 1941 and Thailand signed a treaty
of military alliance with Japan. Thailand thought this preferable to outright
conquest. Prime Minister Pibul Songgram cooperated with Japan.
However, Thailand retained control of its armed forces and internal affairs.
Thailand wanted to use WWII to establish a Greater Thailand and
persuaded Japan to get back Thai territory taken by France. France gave back
some territory from Laos and Cambodia, but not all. And they had to pay for it.
Thailand also took four Malay states. Thai army annexed the Shan states of
Burma and established a border with China near Keng Tung. Thailand was also
interested in the activities of Mussolini and Berlin advised Japan to keep a
close watch on the Thai, lest they turn into an “Oriental Italy.”
Then things soured between Thailand and Japan. There were several
reasons, one was that the Japanese claimed the right to import goods duty-free,
which reduced Thailand’s revenues. Thai government split
into two factions, pro- Japan and anti- Japan. Anti- Japan faction the Free Thai Movement, was a well-organized, pro-Allied resistance
movement .It engaged in espionage and
sabotage on behalf of the Allies. Thanks to this, after the war, Thailand was not punished for its support for Japan.
Thai
government declared war on Britain and the United States on January
25, 1942 . The Thai ambassador in London delivered Thailand’s declaration of
war to the British government, but the
Thai ambassador in Washington , refused to do so. Accordingly, the United
States refrained from declaring war on Thailand but the British did. In 1945,
Britain’s Indian 7th Infantry
Division landed, in Thailand, accompanied
by Edwina Mountbatten.
When the tide began to turn against Japan, the Thai government started
distancing itself from the Japanese. And used this to wriggle out of the need
to surrender. Thanks to the work of the
Free Thai Movement, the United States did not treat Thailand as an enemy country in
post-war peace negotiations.
Before signing the peace treaty, however, Britain demanded war
reparations in the form of rice shipments to Malaya. An Anglo-Thai Peace Treaty
was signed on 1 January 1946. France refused to permit admission of Thailand to
the United Nations until Indochinese territories taken by Thailand during the
war were returned. The Soviet Union insisted on the repeal of anti-Communist
legislation. ( End)
