Post Mortem – Post Electoral Analysis
Posted on February 16th, 2015
Prof. Hudson McLean
Whats going-on currently in Sri Lanka, headed by My3 Sirisena, a Puppet-on-a-String, voodoo-danced by the proverbial loser Ranil Wickremesingha (RW), is frighteningly disturbing. When I met his dad some years back, the late Esmond Wickremesinghe in his wood-paneled library (his wife was not allowed there, I was told), although he got the young man into potential leadership under JR, the old gentleman was not quite confident about his son’s “Race Horse” capabilities. And he was right.
With all the right-blood, and money, RW failed many a time to be taken seriously by the populace.
Politics is and has always been a dirty game! RW somehow managed to survive his 40-odd years in the game. In fact, Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR), it was said, that wanted RW to survive as the leader of UNP, simply to keep the “lame-duck” wobbling, as the “Court Jester”.
My opinion is that, The Almighty, (does not matter what you call and worship Him as), did give RW a break, colluding with CBK to find a “Real Monkey’s Paw” (ie MS), to get MR out of the Hot Seat.
There is an old saying that, “It Happens for the Best”!.
Methinks, that the scenario has two effects-;
1: To bring MR down-to-earth, for a while, to show that even a Great Maha Raja can be de-Throned or Thrown-out, by a simple democratic vote or like by force, as it happened to SWRD, Shah of Iran, Indira Ghandi, Saddam Hussein, Muammar Ghaddafi, Hosni Mubharak….. Give MR some quality time to think back. Both Basil and Namal got too big-headed, and needed down-sizing!
2: To demonstrate to the Sri Lankans-at-large that the “New Angel” My3 delivered by RW-CBK, will most probably sell-out Sri Lanka to the Devil!
RW got a job which he would never have accomplished on his own, without the help of CBK and the Tamils. The last time when Sarath Fonseka rode the high horse, he nearly came to grasping the jackpot, but Fonseka did not get the minority vote.
With respect, I refer to the following excellent article:
The Writing Is On The Wall: How Sri Lanka Is To Be Dismantled Posted on February 15th, 2015 Dayan Jayatilleka
“Step One: As a definitive election analysis by experts proves,
Mahinda Rajapaksa gets 58% of the vote of the Sinhalese who comprise 74% of the country’s populace, and only 13% of the vote of the minorities, and loses.
Maithripala Sirisena gets 41% of the vote of the Sinhalese and 85% of the vote of the minorities and wins. (‘Deconstructing the Sri Lanka Presidential Election 2015 through Data Analysis’, Dr. Ranjiva Munasinghe and Ruwanthi de Silva, Daily FT, Friday Feb 13, 2015.”
***********
Statistics:
http://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/2813/
Voter TurnOut – 81%
Cast Votes:12,264,377
Valid Votes:12,123,452
Invalid Votes:140,925
Registered Voters:15,044,490
Maithripala SIRISENA (MS) 6,217,162
Mahinda RAJAPAKSHA (MR) 5,768,090
*********
My question:
Assuming that MR voters were largely SLFP – United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA); and MS voters were National Democratic Front (NDF) comprising of some UPFA + UNP + non-Tamil Minorities + Tamil + Muslim.
Without the Minority per se + UNP support, MS would have probably lost his Deposit?
In this case Sarath Fonseka, War-Hero, a non-politician, performed much better than MS!!
Last election:
The last election for the office of president in Sri Lanka was held on 26 January 2010.[ii] Turnout was 74.50 percent and 10,495,451 of 14,088,500 people casted ballots.[iii] Mahinda Percy RAJAPAKSA of the United People’s Freedom Alliance won 57.88 percent or 6,015,934 votes, while his opponent, Sarath FONSEKA of the New Democratic Front, won 40.15 percent or 4,173,185 votes.
Appointment of Prime Minister – Ranil Wickremasinghe (RW) It is pretty obvious that MS is utterly grateful to RW for ceding his UNP to support MS, and that is why the grateful MS is subservient to RW.
More so, when RW demanded the occupancy of Temple Trees, and made My3 “Simple Charlie” Sirisena to go-find-a-tree.
Not only President Sirisena looks upto RW to maintain his own power, but now President Sirisens dons a “bullet-proof” waist-coat vest, to look like his Indian Master in New Delhi.
This bad news for Sri Lanka.
Historically, RW & CBK were not the great patriotic leaders. They hustled & bustled with USA-EU-India, simply to maintain Tamil terrorism-pot boiling, to continue occupying the Seats of Power.
No Horses in the Stable
As things have started, it is pretty obvious that the Sri Lankan Government stables do not have a single thorough-bred Race Horse, but filled with a brood of donkeys.
The Bottom Line.
During the forth-coming Parliamentary Election, there should be a clear possibility that MR representing SLFP with or without UPFA, should come clean as a potential Prime Minister.
There are hints that MR might be prevented from entering as the SLFP representation for Prime Ministerial candidacy. Then there might be two options. Either the Defense Forces should play their role as the guardian of Sri Lanka, or the People of Sri Lanka should rise against Injustice, in a popular uprising. This might be the Spring of Serendib!
This would also give another opportunity for RW to demonstrate his colours as the representative of the UNP.
Not a long time to go for the Bottom Line!
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February 16th, 2015 at 10:53 am
එළැඹෙන මැතිවරණයෙන් මහින්ද රාජපක්ෂ මහතා අගමැති කරවීම සඳහා අනිද්දා නුගේගොඩදී පැවැත්වෙන රැළියට සහභාගී වීම සඳහා තමන් කැමති නමුත් ශ්රීලනිප මධ්යම කාරක සභාවෙන් එය වලකා ඇතැයි පාර්ලිමේන්තු මන්ත්රී බන්දුල ගුණවර්ධන මහතා කියයි.
කොළඹදී මාධ්ය අමතමින් ඔහු කියා සිටියේ එම රැළියට 5000ක් ගෙනාවොත් ඉල්ලා අස්වන බවට ප්රකාශ කර ඇති අසාද් සාලි තම සමුගැනීම එදිනට තහවුරු කරන ලෙසයි.
එළැමෙණ මැතිවරණයෙන් එජාපයට ජය ගැනීමට ඉඩ නොදෙන බවද කී ඔහු ඉතිහාසයේ ජාතික වීරයෙක් වන මහින්ද රාජපක්ෂ මහතාට එරෙහිව දේශීය හා ජාත්යන්තරව විවිධ බලවේග විසින් විශාල ප්රහාරයක් එල්ල කරන බවත්, ඔහු යළි බලයට ගෙන ඒම සඳහා කැපවන බවද කීය.
February 16th, 2015 at 11:24 am
If or when Elam is formed Sri Lanka has roughly 2 choices:
1) a “hot war” between Colombo and Jaffna that will be as devastating as that between India and Pakistan
or
2) to work with Elam as a policy of “two nations on one island” with both hopefully working for the better of all.
February 16th, 2015 at 2:34 pm
Mr. B.W.
NO 2 is out of the question, completely out of the equation.
February 16th, 2015 at 2:47 pm
Yamapalana Sudiya!
Lankawata Harima Deyak Siduwuna,
Seemawak Nathuwa Pathuruna.
Raja Wennata Sithapu Landa,
Sudiya Nisa Moda Wuna,
Biwwa Neda Yahapalanaya?
Biwwa Neda Yahapalanaya?
Gilla Neda Yahapalanaya?
Aney Magey Sirisena Paney,
Kiyannako Attha Aney,
Apita Pewwa Neda Yamapalanaya?
Apita Pewwa Neda Yamapalanayaaa ….?
February 16th, 2015 at 3:29 pm
Susantha
No it is not. It would be similar to Scotland getting her independence from the United Kingdom.
If Colombo does not work with Elam then it is war, and if it is war India will help Jaffna. If India helps Jaffna soon Elam will or may become part of India and Indians will come to populate that region as an Indian state. Sikkim was annexed even though they voted for the Indian army went in and arrested the royal family to make sure that the rigged election (which is very much similar to Crimea merging with Russia based on an election but completely different in that Sikkimese do not have any cultural, ethnic, racial ties with India and yet they “voted” to join her Now they regret it)
If Colombo and Jaffna work as a unit then even though Sri Lanka is now two nations her economy is one or similar to the EU. It may even be larger than what it is now.
The issue of Elam forming is now academic. It will happen sooner or later. The Sinhalese Nationalists did not do what is needed to defend the nation. they bought into the notion that the victory of the war solved the issue. the expat Tamils, Chennai and Sri Lankan Tamils worked tirelessly to make sure Elam is not dead. I tried and tried to comment the danger waiting if Sri Lanka bought the rubbish dished out such as the blatant lies of human rights, the pretensions of wanting Democracy. the eternal complaints of harrasment etc. but Lankaweb, BBS no one took me seriously.
February 16th, 2015 at 3:33 pm
Maintaining UNSUSTAINABLE short-term CONSUMPTION SPENDING while GUTTING long-tern INVESTMENTS in National INFRASTRUCTURE & DEVELOPMENT will HALT Sri Lanka’s ECONOMIC GROWTH. It will transform our Motherland into a Nation of Do-Nothing, Make-Nothing, Eat-Everything Lotus Eaters!
Aiyooooo Sirisenaaaa …. What are YOU DOING to our Motherland?
…………….
Budget reflects ideological clashes within government
By Chandeepa Wettasinghe
DailyMirror.lk
Top economists in the country slammed the new regime’s interim budget for political indecisiveness and failing to rectify past economic missteps, during a post-budget seminar organized by the Sri Lanka Economic Association (SLEA) and the University of Colombo recently.
“Does this reveal the political agenda of the new government? No,” University of Peradeniya Senior Lecturer Dr. Sumanasiri Liyanage said curtly.The interim budget is widely considered a welfare-oriented fulfillment of election promises, despite the traditionally open market oriented United National Party, comprising majority of the coalition government.
However, some may come up with an argument saying that the UNP has matured politically, attempting to create a political economy suitable for Sri Lanka.
Recently, Policy Planning and Economic Affairs Deputy Minister Dr. Harsha de Silva said that the new regime is following the German social market economy model, combining markets with minimum government regulation while enhancing social insurance.However, Former Central Bank Director and academic Prof. S. S. Colombage and University of Colombo Senior Lecturer Prof. Sirimal Abeyratne agreed with Dr. Liyanage.
However, cracks were shown within the UNP itself, as Dr. de Silva had subtly expressed certain reservations to certain policies enacted by Finance Minister Ravi Karunanayake through the budget.Meanwhile, the economists were also highly critical of the new policies threatening the country’s macroeconomic factors.
“The government is mixing up multiple objectives. They shouldn’t endanger the long term budget for short term gain,” Prof. Abeyratne said.
While SLEA President Prof. A.D.V. de S. Indraratne held to the belief that the interim budget was better than the November 2014 budget, all other panelists said that both of them were extremely bad; sacrificing long term growth for short term political capital.Karunanayake had previously stated that the interim budget would have far reaching ramifications, to be felt for years to come. However, it is doubtful whether he was referring to such negative impacts.
Dr. Liyanage stressed that the policies were unsustainable, and that the country would face austerity following the 100-day programme.Prof. Colombage quoted Singapore’s Former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew.“Sri Lankan budgets are an auction of non-existing resources.”
They were especially displeased with the selective intervention tactics of the regime in providing relief to the lower spectrum while taxing the super rich.
“Targeting to bring down commodities is selective. And the super gain tax is bad too; we have a legal framework which should have been used,” Prof. Abeyratne noted.He added that this severely harms investments and business, specially from foreign sources, and further added that actions which seem politically correct today may not be so when their ramifications are felt.
Meanwhile Prof. Indraratne expressed worry over the spending reduction on public investment.“I was perturbed. We have to take this into serious consideration, because public investment is one of the determinants of growth,” he said.Karunanayake had previously stated that the reduction in investment monetarily does not reflect a reduction in infrastructure development physically, as the spending reduction is offset by eliminating corruption.
The economists expressed worry over the recurrent expenditure overwhelming government revenue, and that this budget had managed to reduce the budget deficit only through the reduction of public spending and the one off-taxes which the regime promised would not be repeated.
This would mean that such expenditure would have to be financed by further borrowings once the one-off revenues are exhausted.Prof. Indraratne said he had hoped for a fall in public debt during the interim budget, but hoped it would happen during the next one.As a solution, Dr. Liyanage said that tax reforms should have been enacted, increasing income tax.“Over 80 percent of our taxes are indirect. It is necessary to increase direct taxes. And there is no correlation between increasing direct taxes and the reduction of growth,” he said.
This conforms to the views previously expressed by Central Bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran, who said that reducing the over 20 different tax schemes, most of which are waived through subsidies, to a simple few could increase transparency and increase tax collection by two to threefold.
February 16th, 2015 at 9:01 pm
Namaste: Post election acts by the Chandrika coolie are interesting. They are similar to the Food Act of 2013 or something of India. Instead of rations and guaranteed food prices the Knkani (Overseer) Chandrika got the coolies lower prices of Indian sourced food. Newest is nuke plant to produce weapon grade material for Indian peace bombs. Jai Hind.
February 17th, 2015 at 5:49 am
Mr.Bernard Wijesinghe,
How can it be similar?
Scotland is already a seperate country within the United kingdom.Sri Lanka is not a united anything.
Scotland seperating from the united kingdom can no way be similar to Eelam being seperated from sri Lanka.
The main obstcle for Eelam to seperate is the eastern province.
Without the eastern province Eelam will look like a one legged amputee and the Eelamists does not have the clout needed in the eastern province to make it join the north. North alone will never be a complete Eelam and
to prevent Eelam from being a reality we have to make sure that the Eelam does not get the other leg to stand on.
February 17th, 2015 at 6:03 am
NAK,
I think TNA heard you! They’ve taken up portfolios in the Eastern Provincial Council. Deputy Chairman position as well.
http://www.dailymirror.lk/63913/tna-accepts-portfolios-in-epc
February 17th, 2015 at 7:22 am
NAK !!! WITH GREAT RESPECT TO MR. BW, I HAVE TO SAY “””HE HAS PEELI PANALA”””
He has written a lot of substance in this forum, but this is the CRAZIEST THING I HAVE EVER HEARD FROM HIM. MAY BE HE WOULD HAVE HAD A SHOT OR TWO MORE BEFORE HE EVER ENTERTAINED THIS THOUGHT IN HIS CRANIUM.
February 20th, 2015 at 12:20 am
Over three decades, division of the North from the South had been dealt at the gun point by the LTTE. The recent genocide resolution passed against Sri Lanka by the NPC, shows very well that the ideology of separatism is live and large than ever though MR was too busy of developing the North and the East in favor of minorities of this country. In the end, the very person who made them dignified is been ousted by the Northern Sri Lanka Tamils delegated by the Tamil world where the Majority of them having a complexity of not having a Tamil homeland. The question remaining to the mass over 70% of the population in Sri Lanka is that are you letting down those who are fallen to safeguard the territorial integrity of this island throughout the history? The only viable counter force available against UNP led coalition is MR as the UNP Government is attempting to isolate MY3 to proceed their pro India hidden agenda. I strongly think that MR learned out of lapses that he made during his previous tenure as the head and still the populist politician in Sri Lanka ..
February 20th, 2015 at 3:48 am
Namaste: Dear Nak, Scotland, Wales, Ireland were separate countries before the English made Britain. Indian Union was built by the British. This the problem for us well as the World. If the British could do so much, think what the Indians will do with their one and a half billion people? The danger signs are there. Jai Hind