All Enemies of Mahinda But One Have Fallen
Posted on February 1st, 2017
The UNP-Sirisena regime is an orphan now! All its parents are gone, dead or kaput except one who is on his last legs dragging his wretched country down with him. So where is Samantha Power – the most vicious regime change agent – and her accomplice Biswal? Gone! How about Cameron, Obama and Pillai? Gone to the political rubbish bin! Hillary Clinton and Jayaram Jayalalitha are also gone with the wind. Ban Ki Moon will be gone very soon. Only Modi survives at the expense of his country. UNP regime is feeling vulnerable as any orphan would feel.
This is not the first time the global regimen of local support went extinct just before their local ally’s political exit. It happened to Mahinda as well. Some key international allies of Mahinda went down before him – Kaddafi, Chavez, Manmohan and Ahmadinejad are some.
This is a trend that is to be expected. Yamapalanaya government had it written all over it. Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) which is an indication of trust foreign business persons have placed in Lanka started to drop rapidly. By 2016, it has fallen to an 11 year low. Corruption and corruption index are up. In fact, corruption index of 2016 (the latest) places Lanka in its second worst in history. Surely, corruption has worsened since 2010.
All these are clarion calls foretelling the death of the Yamapalanaya government. Knowing it is on its last legs, the Yamapalanaya government clings on to any straw it can grab. Even astrologers are hunted down in its desperate quest for security. Wimal Weerawansa – the harshest critic of the Yamapalanaya regime – has been jailed and others are stalked with the intent of silencing them. Jokers and bodybuilders in the ranks of the regime have turned into street thugs threatening violence against hapless female public sector employees. Steroids are only for the body below the neck. There are no steroids for the brain. These muscle men are trying to jump from the sinking ship to save their souls.
However, this is where caution must be exercised. The real opposition (not Tiger Nominated Agents – the fake opposition) must not rush in where angels dire to tread. The regime taxes people to death and this will worsen with time. VAT was increased, broadened and new taxes were introduced to earn more for luxury vehicles of ministers and MPs, repay foreign debt and waste on reconciliation. All these expenses are going up and up through 2017 and 2018 to 2019.
We repaid $1.8 billion in foreign debt in 2016 and it will go up to $2.4 billion in 2017. That is a $600 million increase (or 91 billion rupees, if exchange rate remains). In other words, each family will be taxed at least 17,500 rupees more in 2017. It worsens in 2018 to $3 billion which means each family will have to fork out 33,500 rupees more. By the 2019 presidential election year, it will be $4 billion (or 62,500 rupees a family more than 2016). Mind you, this is assuming the exchange rate will remain same which is unlikely. If the exchange rate depreciates as it did from 2014 to 2016 under Yamapalanaya regime, in 2019 each family will be taxed 77,000 rupees more than 2016!
Therefore, it is best for the Opposition to hold its horses until 2019. All parties must ensure there is no place for violence (protests that may turn violent due to anyone’s fault – doesn’t matter whose fault it is all protests that can turn violent must not be held, no revolutions, no riots) in this civilised society. Faced with an unsurmountable balance of payment crisis in 1981 and 1982, the then government resorted to the 1983 riot which fixed the balance of payment problem thanks to remittances from the Tamil Diaspora to their war affected families which uplifted the nation’s foreign reserves despite war and collapsing tourism industry. Modi is the only friend of the Yamapalanaya government, himself in the blame for the 2001 Gujarat riots! Such dastardly acts must not be allowed in Lanka although it is part of the monthly calendar in India.
Postponing elections is good for the real opposition, as the lid on the simmering pot will remain shut for longer building up more pressure. The Joint Opposition must shed feudal shackles of dynastic politics in order to make the most of it. Out of sheer desperation, the Yamapalanaya regime will punish the former ruling dynasty as hard as it can both to shut out the Opposition and to gain cheap popularity. Yamapalanaya leaders fear for their lives from the former ruling dynasty and they are determined to desensitise or neutralise the former powerful clan before leaving power.
If the Opposition places all its eggs in the former ruling dynasty, it will be in the loss at the 2019 election. A new dynasty must be picked for the 2019 presidential election and to lead the Opposition for the 2020 general election.