BY EDWARD THEOPHILUS

The ethnic base population of Sri Lankan since 1881 census to latest reported census is given in the Table (a) in which clearly indicates that Sinhala ethnic group[G1]  has gradually increased as a ratio of population and Sri Lankan Tamils’ ratio has notably declined from 26.69% to 12.86% in 1911, I assume that the major reason to change was the beginning of the Tamil population classification as Sri Lanka Tamils, Indian Tamils, and Indian Moors.  Why such a change was done for a single ethnic group of Tamil[G2]  is difficult to assume. However, it can postulate that the Census Authority wished to show a greater diversity in Tamil population.

The population of Sri Lanka in terms of the ethnical base is given in the following (Table a)

Source: United Nations Estimates based on Census of Sri Lanka  

The total population of Sri Lanka in 2017 according to the United Nations estimates based on the census conducted in the past and estimates of the Central Bank report was 20920934, which was equivalent to 0.028% of the World Population. From this population, 19.4% are living in urban areas and 80.6% of the population is living in rural and semi-urban areas. Another vital factor is nearly 3 Million of Sri Lanka’s population are living exile, however, these statistics are not reliable because those who have gone overseas and change the citizenship could not be regarded as a part of the population of Sri Lanka though they born in the country unless all take dual citizenship.  

Table (a) further indicates the ethnic base of total population. Historically, the first census of Sri Lanka conducted in 1881 in which the ethnic mix of the population was 69.91% Sinhala, 24.9% Sri Lankan Tamils, 6.69% Sri Lankan Moor, 0.65% Burghers or Eurasians and 0.32% Sri Lankan Malays.  The ethnic mixture has changed in 1911 census because Indian Tamils (12.93%) and Indian Moors (5.70%) added to the ethnic mixture of the population. Since 1911, statistics demonstrate that Indian Tamils and Moors in Sri Lanka have increased decreasing the ratio of Sri Lankan Tamils but since 1963 the situation has dramatically changed by the Indo-Lanka Agreement, which allowed the government of Sri Lanka to deport a part of Indian population back to India. The notable display is that Indian Moors have vanished from Sri Lanka’s soil as a result of Indo-Lanka agreement.

The other significant trend in the ethnic population is that Sinhala population has been increased from 66.91% in 1881 to 74.9% in 2011 and the estimate for 2017 indicates that current ratio of Sinhala population might 76% in Sri Lanka. The population of Sri Lankan Tamils in 1881 was 24.9% but it has dramatically declined to 11.15% in 2011.  Indian Tamil population reflected an increase from 12.93% in 1911 to 15.43% in 1931 then Indian Tamil population has declined to 4.12% in 2011. The Muslim population has increased to 1892638 (9.30%) from 184500 (6.69%) in 1881 [G3] and the increase in Muslim population 2.49% between 1881 to 2011 is very much lesser than the 8.5% of the increase in Sinhala population in the same period.  Therefore, some information in social media is mere fabrications than the actual statics in the country.[G4] 

The changes in ethnic population in Sri Lanka from 1911 was contributed by many factors.  There is no doubt that Sinhala population has naturally increased and many population studies lead us to assume that migration of Sinhala population to overseas countries after 1963 was in a negligible volume and Sinhala rural people have economically established in the country as a result of the expansion of education[G5] . They have entered public and private offices and took over the power of administration to a reasonable extent of the country.[G6] 

Sri Lankan Tamil population was dramatically declined probably contributing several factors.  The major contributory factor was a migration of Sri Lankan Tamils to overseas countries. A large volume of Sri Lankan Tamils migrated to India, UK, Canada, Europe, Australia and New Zealand.  The trend for going overseas began in the early 1970s and LTTE war encouraged to leave Tamils from the country.  The major reasons for them to leave the country was economic factors called green pastures. After finishing the LTTE war in 2009, Sri Lankan Tamils did not come back and still it seems that they attempt to go overseas.

When we analyse the trend of the population in Sri Lanka, the next significant factor is the religious association of people.  Table (b) indicates the population by religions from 1881 to 2012.  In Sri Lanka, Muslim religion treats as an ethnic group despite the ethnic classifications in other countries in the world.  Muslim religious groups in Middle East countries do not classify as an ethnic group but they treat as a religious group.  Tamil ethnic group in Sri Lanka includes Hindus and Christians whilst Sinhala ethnic groups include Buddhists and Christians.  In fact, when originally classify ethnic population, Muslim population should have included to two major ethnic groups as Sinhala speaking Muslims and Tamil speaking Muslims.  If the classification was done so, the picture of the ethnic population would have dramatically changed.  

The Population of Sri Lanka by Religion (Table b)

Source: United Nations Estimates based on Census of Sri Lanka      

The trend of change in the religious population indicates that Buddhists in 1881 was 61.53% of total population has increased to 70.10% in 2012 while Hindus have declined to 12.58% in 2012 from 21.51% in 1881. Muslim religious group has increased to 9.66% in 2012 from 7.17% in 1881 and Christian population has declined to 7.62% in 2012 from 9.71% in 1881.  Other religious groups have seriously declined to 0.03% in 2012 from 0.08% in 1881. When generally considers the trend of religious population, Buddhists have the highest increase (12.58%) followed by Muslims 2.49% during 1881 to 2012.

The population report of 2012 clearly indicates that the growth of population in relation to ethnic communities and religious communities have not been calculated and it might be a racist practice and may be subject to communal disharmony. It might be difficulty in identifying birth and death of people in each religious group.  The rate of population growth is the difference between birth rate and death rate, which are calculated how many to per thousands of people and the difference between the birth and the death rate consider as a percentage of population growth.  Sri Lanka’s annual population growth from 1953 to 1971 remained at 2.8% to 2.2%, which was a higher rate of growth.  Economic policymakers concerned on this matter because if the population growth rate is higher than economic growth rate, it would be a reason to create macroeconomic, social and family problems.  However, since 1971 population growth rate has been declined and in 2012, it was 0.7%.  The control of population growth is an essential economic policy requirement for small countries like Sri Lanka.  As we fully aware, China had implemented one child for a family policy considering economic issues irrespective of ethnic or religious factors.

When we observe the trends of population growth in Sri Lanka, a significant point needs to be considered is the fertility of women because the fertility rate is the most influential factor, which impacts on the growth of population.  According to the Census Report of 2012, the average fertility rate of women in Sri Lanka is 2.4%, which includes all women irrespective of different ethnic and religious communities.  The disaggregate data for each community, the report presents as Sinhala women 2.3%, Sri Lanka Tamil 2.3%, Indian Tamil 2.9% and Muslim 3.3%.  This might be a disturbing factor for Sinhala and Sri Lankan Tamils in Sri Lanka. Why is the fertility rate of Muslim women and Indian Tamil women higher than the national average? The education level of women and other family and social issues might be contributing to this situation.   [G7] 

The fertility of women is influenced by many factors, which could be categorized as social, economic, cultural, religious, education and behavioural reasons and it concerns with the general health of women. There was more research in Sri Lanka in relation to this area.  The higher fertility might be a problem to a country.[G8] [G9] [G10] 

People need to understand demographic trends looking at actual statistics rather than listening to fabricated stories.   I read various articles in internet about women fertility trend in Sri Lanka and the reliability of information is questionable and the rate of growth of population in religious group may be required to control although it might treat as a racist act. The best action is to calculate it and keep confidential for policy or referencing purpose.