Benefits – at least next time?
Posted on October 10th, 2024
Chanaka Bandarage
This month the IMF came and left. Though much anticipated, we did not receive any benefit from them. Prior to the Presidential election, the NPP boasted that they will renegotiate better terms and conditions for the country with the IMF.
Did the government field its best team to negotiate with the IMF? No.
Some members of the Sri Lankan team were university dons. Surely they must be highly educated. But, do they have the skill, talent and the ticker to conduct international negotiations? Have they learnt about mediation skills and have practised them professionally?
Comments posted in Social media suggested that the Sri Lankan delegates were keener on taking them on selfies. Let’s hope this is untrue.
The fact remains the same – Sri Lanka failed at the talks. Prior to the Presidential election there was much hype that the NPP’s IMF team will come out with best results. But, it is clear after the talks – the status quo has not changed.
Basically, the government proved that what the former President had stated is true – IMF terms and conditions cannot be altered.
Some say that at the recently concluded talks the IMF imposed further harsh conditions on us. Eg. they increased the loan interest rate. The writer does not believe this.
The government now states that there will be more future talks with the IMF and benefits will eventually flow. This is good. The government must maintain positivity.
Both the government and the SJB are right – the current IMF terms and conditions are very harsh and oppressive. People, especially the lower and middle classes are suffering tremendously due to the various new taxes introduced.
To increase state revenue, IMF prescribes austerity measures.
The best for the country is to increase exports and attract foreign investments/remittances.
The fact that the US government has offered to assist us in increasing exports is much commendable. During President Premadasa’s time it was the US that helped him to establish 200 garment factories. Before she departs, will Julie Chung do something that Teresita Schaffer did in 1992?
The writer states that if correctly approaches, it is possible to get the IMF to amend the harsh terms and conditions. To achieve this, we must have an excellent team that can sit on equal footing with the IMF.
About the ‘haircuts’ – the government must not give up the idea to renegotiate with foreign creditors (foreign governments and banks). Where applicable, they must do this collectively and individually.
If we do this properly, for some loans, we may be able to obtain up to 60% debt reductions; some loans may be totally written off. Brilliant negotiators can surely achieve things that seem unbelievable to many.
In debt restructuring talks, the last government did a very bad job. It basically stated ‘Yes’ to everything that the foreign lenders stated. They failed to obtain any significant ‘haircuts’.
Again, to achieve benefits to the country, we must formulate a top-level team. The team members must be highly experienced, top level achievers in their respective fields. It is not a requirement that they are all economic pundits. People from various occupations can be members of our team. Among them, competent lawyers are the best.
Apart from high academic qualifications obtained in their respective fields, our IMF team members must be of utmost self-confident, well-disciplined and well committed individuals. In the conference, they must be able to speak fluently, logically, effectively and up to the point (must be of excellent communicators); give direct eye contact with their IMF counterparts. Even how they handshake matters; they must be firm, confident handshakes.
It is not a must that our delegates are fluent in English (of course, having English fluency is extremely helpful). English weak members can use translators.
The most important criteria is that our representatives must be fully conversant with the matter at hand. They must have done their homework 100%. They must have fully perused all the main and associated documents. These preparations can take several days. Thus, only people who can make a full, wholehearted commitment must participate.
They must have studied how the IMF operates in these matters and how other countries (like Ghana, Latvia, Poland, Colombia etc) have achieved much success from such talks – what strategies did they use, why Sri Lanka failed in October 2024 etc.
Our delegates must be 100% patriotic and must have the determination to win. They must set goals – what minimum and maximum to achieve.
It is vitally important for the delegates to know the norms and behavior of conducting international negotiations. They must not demonstrate any personal animosity/bitterness towards their IMF counterparts.
Our President has the skills and talent that I have outlined herein. He is a real charmer and a communication grandmaster.
So does Mr Sajith Premadasa, the former Leader of the Opposition.
It is ideal if both of them can be in our future IMF team (after the 14 November 2024 election). The SJB has a superb Economic Affairs team, some of them can also be included like Eran and Kabir.
It is important to bear in mind that this is an exercise done in the best interests of the country. If the opposition parliamentarians are included in the delegation (eg. SJB), they must come with the mindset of doing the right thing by the country. They must not try political point scoring.
Again, everyone must realise that they are doing this for the country. We are a very small population (Indigenous, Sinhala, Tamil, Muslim, Burgher, Malay), and all of us live peacefully in this tiny, beautiful land.
In the LTTE days and now in UNHRC Geneva, we have constantly failed because we have fielded ambassadors/high commissioners who have diplomatically failed this country. In the past, majority of the country’s diplomats have been family, friends and cronies of the ruling class. That was a clear recipe for disaster. Hopefully the NPP will change this.
Good luck in our future IMF talks!