The parliamentary group of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has unanimously decided to fully support all progressive steps taken by the new government and development activities through parliamentary processes, without accepting any posts.
The party said in a statement that the decision was taken at a meeting of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya’s parliamentary group today (16).
As a responsible political party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya believes that at this moment it is essential to rescue the country from the crisis situation it is currently facing.”
Accordingly, the parliamentary group of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has unanimously decided to fully support all progressive steps taken by the new government to uplift the economy, for the benefit of the country through a parliamentary process, without accepting any posts in the government.
However, the SJB said that the group had decided that it would unconditionally suspend their support for the ruling party if any action is taken to exploit the members representing the Samagi Jana Balawega and to involve the members in the ruling party outside the basic policy of the SJB.
During a discussion with the Prime Minister, the 10 political parties that quit the former government have assured that they would contribute to the new government’s efforts through the National Council and the Parliament Oversight Committees proposed to be set up.
Pivithuru Hela Urumaya (PHU) leader MP Udaya Gammanpila stated this while speaking to reporters following a meeting between the representatives of the 10-party alliance and the Prime Minister held at the PM’s Office this morning (16).
Following the invitation of PM Wickremesinghe to form an all-party government, members of 10 independent political parties who left the SLPP government had decided to support it.
However, it is further reported that the 10 parties have refused to accept any ministerial portfolios in the new government.
The special discussion between Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and the leaders of the 10 parties had commenced at the Prime Minister’s Office this morning.
Meanwhile, political sources say that the other ministers of the new government will be sworn in today if a final agreement is reached.
Four ministers have already been sworn in and 14 more are expected to be sworn in.
This time the cabinet will be limited to 20 ministers, including the president and prime minister.
The Cabinet meeting is scheduled to be held this afternoon under the chairmanship of President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa.
This is the first cabinet meeting to be held after Ranil Wickremesinghe became the Prime Minister.
Meanwhile, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party had also engaged in another discussion with the Prime Minister this morning.
The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) has decided to support the formation of an all-party government at the invitation of the Prime Minister.
It is reported that the chairman of the party Maithripala Sirisena has sent a letter to the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe informing him about this.
However, a discussion was held between Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party this morning to reach a final agreement in this regard.
MPs Dayasiri Jayasekara, Shan Wijayalal De Silva, Ranjith Siyambalapitiya and Dushmantha Mithrapala had participated in this meeting.
Myanmar is one of the closest neighbors of Bangladesh. Which is also known as Burma. Before the Second World War, many people from Bangladesh used to travel to Burma in search of livelihood. Since then, the people of this country have developed an economic and social relationship with Burma. Apart from India, Bangladesh shares a border with Myanmar. The 271 km long Bangladesh-Myanmar border is very important for Bangladesh due to geographical reasons. Bangladesh can use Myanmar by land for communication in Southeast Asian countries including China. Road connectivity is possible through Myanmar. Maybe a new horizon of relationships and possibilities unfolds.
Myanmar can also use Bangladesh to reach South Asia specially Nepal, Bhutan, Mainland India. Bangladesh and Myanmar both share a common regional platform like ‘BIMSTEC’. On the other hand, Bangladesh is considered as a ‘Hub ‘between South Asia and South East Asia. It is true that Bangladesh is a South East Asian country geographically but South Asian country culturally, demographically and historically. This is an outstanding geo-strategic characteristic of Bangladesh. Therefore, without the involvement of Bangladesh, any connectivity amongst the states of ASEAN and SAARC is absolutely impossible.
Myanmar is a country rich in natural resources. There are huge amounts of natural resources like tin, zinc, copper, tungsten, coal, marble, limestone, natural gas, hydropower etc. The major resource of this country is mineral resources. Myanmar can be a major source of energy for Bangladesh to ensure its energy security. Food and grains are produced in large quantities in Myanmar. Myanmar can also be a big helper of Bangladesh in the field of food security.
Myanmar has a huge potential of rice cultivation. But lands of Myanmar are unutilized for decades due to lack of human resource. Myanmar needs labors. Rice production in Myanmar accounts for approximately 43% of total agricultural production in the country, making it the seventh largest producer of rice in the world. Out of 67.6 million hectares of land, 12.8 million are used for cultivation. In 2019 alone, Myanmar accounted for 13,300 million metric tons of milled rice production. Rice production in Myanmar is heavily dependent on human and animal power, both traditional methods of cultivation. Myanmar has lack of Manpower and technology in this regard. But Bangladesh has these two things. Bangladesh has surplus human resource. Myanmar can utilize the human resource of Bangladesh for the maximum gain.
But Bangladesh has never been able to take full advantage of this opportunity. This country of 135 tribes and different ethnic groups has been under military rule for many years. That may be one of the reasons why the relationship is not deep. If Bangladesh had good relations with Myanmar, its dependence on India could be reduced in many cases. If contacts were made in Southeast Asia and China through Myanmar, there would be immense potential for investment and trade.
Bangladesh and Myanmar are both on the way to be developed countries. Bangladesh is going to be a South Asian Economic Miracle. Bangladesh can play a significant role in Myanmar to some extent whole South East Asia. For this, Myanmar should increase its diplomatic relations with Bangladesh for the better mutual interest for whole South Asia and South East Asia. EU, China, India, Russia and North Korea are becoming allies in Myanmar’s oil, gas, mineral resources and military markets. Taking advantage of the US negligence, Myanmar’s military junta extended a helping hand to China to invest. So, China is now the biggest investor in this country. According to Earth-Rights International, a private group, more than 26 Chinese companies are investing in Myanmar’s oil, gas, mineral resources and allied sectors. China has already become its biggest ally in building and supplying arms to Myanmar. Myanmar has developed relations not only with China but also with India. India and China are building trade relations with Myanmar. The United States is also changing its approach to the Myanmar question. That is why America, a strong economic country, has started taking new initiatives to develop relations.
Recently, a 41-year dispute over the maritime border with Bangladesh-Myanmar has been settled by the International Court of Justice. As a result, the rights of Bangladesh have been established in an area of 1 lakh 11 thousand square kilometers. Myanmar’s waters have also been identified. As a result, this problem has been eliminated. The path of creating tension in the Bay of Bengal has been blocked.
Myanmar is rich in minerals, ores, oil, gas, precious stones and other natural resources. The country is a major supplier of natural wood to the world. While attracting foreign investment has been limited to the oil and gas sector, the country has recently shifted its focus to attracting production-based investment. The country is well ahead in power generation due to good investment in hydropower generation. The tourism industry is also a promising sector of the country. Myanmar’s economy has so far been limited to extracting natural resources, said Nobel laureate economist Professor Joseph Stiglis, who warned that the country would suffer a “curse of wealth” if it continued. Some resource-rich countries in Africa, including Nigeria, Sudan and Benin, have been plagued by corruption, internal strife and poverty. These countries could not adopt proper wealth management system. Economists have the opinions that if democracy is restored in Myanmar and corruption is reduced, it will not have to go to the level of countries that have failed in wealth management. Therefore, it can be assumed that Myanmar will become a country with rapid economic growth in a few years. The country’s biggest economic advantage is that they are members of the ten-nation ASEAN. ASEAN is one of the three most successful trade blocs in the world. The trade consists of Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. The alliance controls about 24 percent of total world trade and their share in world trade is growing every year. Their trade relations with China, Japan and South Korea are deepening due to the increase in trade. ASEAN countries account for more than 50 percent of total trade between themselves and the three countries. As a result, Bangladesh has the opportunity to benefit by strengthening ties with this trade alliance, that is, Myanmar. Bangladesh and Myanmar are among the seven member countries of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). Therefore, there is ample opportunity to increase trade and investment relations between the two countries through BIMSTEC.
There are many opportunities to enhance Bangladesh’s bilateral trade and investment relations with Myanmar. Through the import of gas and electricity, Bangladesh can get future energy security. The two countries can jointly explore for oil and gas in the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh can also contribute to the development of Myanmar’s infrastructure.
The proposed construction of the Asian Highway, funded by the Asian Development Bank and other donor groups, could also increase land connectivity between the two countries. And there is ample opportunity to increase shipping. Besides, joint investment can be made in fertilizer, plastic, cement, furniture etc. Both countries will benefit if Myanmar produces raw materials and Bangladesh with skills, technical knowledge and labor. Because, Myanmar imports every product. Bangladesh can also export readymade garments.
Bangladesh produces medicines, electronics. Myanmar can import these from Bangladesh hugely. On the other hands, Myanmar is a source of agricultural products. Bangladesh can import these from Myanmar. During the moment of Bangladesh’s onion crisis with India in 2019, Myanmar provided onions to Bangladesh. Bangladesh understood the importance of bilateral trade with Myanmar at that time. On the other hands, Bangladesh is keen to provide assistance to Myanmar.
Covid-19 vaccine diplomacy, counter terrorism approach for the regional security are some sectors. Rohingya refugee problem has made distance between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Myanmar should solve this problem to serve its own and reginal interest. Myanmar should understand that it is the issue of the region. Whole South Asia and South East Asia may be volatile and unstable for this problem.
However, the two countries can also increase production in the agricultural sector through joint ventures. Apart from adopting joint investment projects, Bangladesh can increase imports of various agricultural products including pulses, spices, fish and rice. Thus, enhancing bilateral relations could contribute to the growth of trade and investment relations with ASEAN and BIMSTEC countries. This will create an opportunity to solve the Rohingya problem and stop militant activities. Therefore, Myanmar should take effective steps to strengthen bilateral relations. Pathik Hasan, Dhaka based NGO activist and Writer on contemporary international issues. He can be reached at pathikhasan1141@gmail.com
Colombo, May 15: Sri Lanka’s new Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, has been subjected to jibes and invectives from political opponents, armchair pundits and the media, both mainstream and social. But political realties being what they are, the 73 year-old sixth time Prime Minister is more likely to survive in office than be hounded out of it.
In fact, he is expected to get majority support in parliament, though his party, United National Party (UNP), has only one MP (that is himself). When his support base is tested in parliament on May 17, he might romp home with a comfortable majority. Many political parties and groups have now come round to accepting him as PM if only to have a stable government to tackle the grave economic crisis. MPs, across the board, are now realizing that the major powers of the world, who are also the donors or potential donors, are watching their antics with increasing anxiety, and the flow of funds from abroad might stop if instability continues. ADVERTISEMENT
Be that as it may, Wickremesinghe’s real challenge is not so much within parliament, but outside parliament, on the economic front. The country’s forex reserves continue to be abysmally low – US$ 50 million according to the Central Bank Governor Nandala Weerasinghe. But US$ 70 million is immediately required to offload a consignment of fuel which has arrived. Indian aid, now notching up to US$ 3.5 billion, is keeping the economy from sinking, but in three months’ time, that flow will come to a halt. The promised Chinese aid of US$ 2.5 billion is yet to materialize due to some conditions placed by Beijing, according to Sunday Times. Reportedly Sri Lanka immediately needs US$ 1 to billion.
The expected IMF facility will take six months to be extended, according to the Governor of the Central Bank. But once the Staff Level Agreement with the IMF is signed, the World Bank and the ADB will extend help it is said. The World Bank has already given US$ 600 million.
Western countries have not even offered bilateral or multilateral help. As a Sri Lankan academic once out, the Americans come with a bagful of advice not money.” Japan is the only country from the Western camp which is likely to help because of its long-standing position as a leading donor. Even now, its loans to Sri Lanka are slightly more than China’s, accounting for 10.8% of the total Sri Lankan external debt of US$ 51 billion.
Wickremesinghe is keenly aware of the dire economic situation and has told the media that his first task will be to see that the public get their basic needs such as food and fuel. I will see that every Sri Lankan has three meals a day,” he said.
Towards this end, he has set up a small task force and held preliminary talks with the envoys of India, China, the US and Japan, which have resulted in promises of cooperation. The West and India have welcomed his appointment as Prime Minister as they view him as their friend. He is Right of Center in ideology and is pro-West, though not antagonistic China. He is a known advocate of integrating Sri Lanka’s economy with India, especially, the five South Indian States of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. He was keen on giving the contract to build and run the Easter Container Terminal in Colombo port to India, but President Maithripala Sirisena thwarted it.
Wickremesihghe’s relations with China were frosty in the initial stages of his last stint as Prime Minister. He called a halt to the Chinese-funded and executed Colombo Port City project, but after a year and a half, entered into a deal with the Chinese, re-naming the project as the Colombo Financial City and giving them a give piece of land there for their exclusive use. He gave the Hambantota port to China on a 99-year lease for US$ 1.1 billion, terms deemed very favorable to the Chinese.
However, China appears to be a bit wary about recent developments in Sri Lanka, mainly due to the active role being taken by India with the active cooperation of the Sri Lankan government. But India stepped in partly because the Chinese were prevaricating on helping Sri Lanka. Beijing wanted Colombo to go by its advice on how to tackle the economic problem. Beijing was overlooking the fact that what Sri Lanka was facing was an economic emergency needing an urgent infusion of loads of cash. India understood the Lankans’ plight better and responded with alacrity and generously, earning the gratitude of the powers-that-be in Colombo as well as the man-in-the-street.
Eventually, China may come up with an aid package if only to keep its place in Sri Lanka which in terms of investment is substantial (over US$ 5 billion). China is especially interested in checkmating India geo-politically in the island, including the Tamil-speaking Northern and Eastern provinces. The Chinese Ambassador Qi Zhenhong had had a much publicized visit to the North. He is now eying the East, where India has a strategic interest, especially in Trincomalee.
On the domestic political front, matters are now going Wickremesinghe’s way. He has already secured the full support of the biggest party in parliament, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Rebels from the SLPP-led ruling alliance, who are sitting in parliament as Independents, have stated that they will support Wickremesinghe’s good policies and oppose the bad ones. The main opposition party, the Samage Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has come round to saying the same thing. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA) have also joined the chorus on giving selective and principled support to tide over the economic crisis. The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), led by former President Maithripala Sirisenam has also said that it will support the government.
Only the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) with 3 MPs is adamant about opposing the government as it feels that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa should not have made Wickremesinghe Prime Minister when the latter’s party had been wiped out in the last elections and Wickremesinghe himself had entered parliament only as a nominated member.
Though political circles give many reasons for President’s decision to make Wickremesinghe Prime Minister, the most cited reason is that he has entered into a deal with Wickremesinghe to run the administration smoothly and successfully so that, at a suitable time, he will be given a safe exit from power and perhaps the country itself. It is said that the President had agreed to assist the repeal of the 20 th.Amendment of 2020 which had given him dictatorial powers and substitute it with the 21 st.Amendment which will be a new avatar of the 19 th.Amendment under which the President would only be a figurehead and not a functioning Executive President. Reportedly, Gotabaya Rajapaksa had also told Wickremesinghe to take all decisions and promised to sign on the dotted line.
With the political decks cleared or about to be cleared, Wickremesinghe will be able attend to the urgent task of ensuring a steady flow of foreign exchange. He would engage in intensive diplomacy with all major powers and international financial institutions to meet the basic needs of the much deprived and helpless people of Sri Lanka and also put the derailed Lankan economy back on the rails.
The new Sri Lankan PM, Ranil Wickremesinghe, on Saturday said that a committee has been appointed to look after the interests of the ‘Gota Go Home’ protesters who have been camping at Colombo’s Galle Face Green since April 9.
In an unusual move, Sri Lanka’s new Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has extended public support to the protesters, who have been camping at a popular beachfront here for over a month calling for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation for mishandling the country’s worst economic crisis.
The Prime Minister on Saturday said he had appointed a committee to look after the interests of the ‘Gota Go Home’ village protesters who have been camping at Colombo’s Galle Face Green since April 9.
Wickremesinghe, who was appointed by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa as Prime Minister after asking his elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa to quit, said the young protesters in the village would be safeguarded and their views would be sought for the shaping of future policy.
In an interview with the BBC Sinhala Service, the Prime Minister said the ‘Gota Go Gama’ protest should be continued to bring a change in the political system in the country and let the country’s youth take the responsibility for leading.
Wickremesinghe, the 73-year-old United National Party (UNP) leader, was appointed as Sri Lanka’s 26th prime minister on Thursday as the country has been without a government since Monday when prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned after violence erupted following an attack on the anti-government protesters by his supporters.
The attack triggered widespread violence against Rajapaksa loyalists, leaving nine people dead and wounding over 200 others.
Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna Party (SLPP) has extended their support to Wickremesinghe and almost all parties represented in the 225-member Parliament have said although they wouldn’t be a party to Wickremesinghe’s government, they would support him in his effort to pull Sri Lanka out of the current economic crisis.
Political sources said two more ministers are to be appointed to the interim Cabinet on Sunday. Rajapaksa appointed four of them on Saturday.
At least 78 parliamentarians, including the former prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, faced arson attacks on their private properties during the unrest on May 9.
At the government parliamentary group meeting held on Saturday, the attendance was low as parliamentarians still fear for their lives despite the imposition of a curfew.
Those present blamed the Inspector General of Police for what they alleged was “police inaction” to prevent arson attacks on the properties of government parliamentarians. Sri Lanka is going through the worst economic crisis since independence in 1948.
A crippling shortage of foreign reserves has led to long queues for fuel, cooking gas and other essentials, while power cuts and soaring food prices have heaped misery on people.
The economic crisis also triggered a political crisis in Sri Lanka and a demand for the resignation of the powerful Rajapaksas.
President Rajapaksa sacked his Cabinet and appointed a younger Cabinet as a response to the demand for his resignation. A continuous protest opposite his secretariat has now gone on for well over a month.
Wickremesinghe appoints committee to look after interests of ‘Gota Go Home’ leaders camping at Colombo’s Galle Face Green since April 9.
In an unusual move, Sri Lanka’s new Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has extended public support to the protesters, who have been camping at a popular beachfront here for over a month calling for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation for mishandling the country’s worst economic crisis.
Appointment of a new prime minister in Sri Lanka has failed to appease anti-government protesters demanding the resignation of the president for the country’s disastrous economic crisis.Advertisement
The Prime Minister on Saturday said he had appointed a committee to look after the interests of the ‘Gota Go Home’ village protesters who have been camping at Colombo’s Galle Face Green since April 9.
Wickremesinghe, who was appointed by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa as Prime Minister after asking his elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa to quit, said the young protesters in the village would be safeguarded and their views would be sought for the shaping of future policy.
In an interview with the BBC Sinhala Service, the Prime Minister said the ‘Gota Go Gama’ protest should be continued to bring a change in the political system in the country and let the country’s youth take the responsibility to lead.
Wickremesinghe, the 73-year-old United National Party (UNP) leader, was appointed as Sri Lanka’s 26th prime minister on Thursday as the country was without a government since Monday when prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned after violence erupted following an attack on the anti-government protesters by his supporters.
Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna Party (SLPP) has extended their support to Wickremesinghe and almost all parties represented in the 225-member Parliament have said although they wouldn’t be a party to Wickremesinghe’s government they would support him in his effort to pull Sri Lanka out of the current economic crisis.
Political sources said two more ministers are to be appointed to the interim Cabinet on Sunday. Rajapaksa appointed four of them on Saturday.
At least 78 parliamentarians, including the former prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, had faced arson attacks on their private properties during the unrest on May 9.
At the government parliamentary group meeting held on Saturday, the attendance was low as parliamentarians still fear for their lives despite the imposition of curfew.
Those present blamed the Inspector General of Police for what they alleged as “police inaction” to prevent arson attacks on the properties of government parliamentarians.
Sri Lanka is going through the worst economic crisis since independence in 1948.
A crippling shortage of foreign reserves has led to long queues for fuel, cooking gas and other essentials while power cuts and soaring food prices heaped misery on the people.
The economic crisis also triggered a political crisis in Sri Lanka and a demand for the resignation of the powerful Rajapaksas.
President Rajapaksa sacked his Cabinet and appointed a younger Cabinet as a response to the demand for his resignation. A continuous protest opposite his secretariat has now gone on for well over a month.
JVP General Secretary Tilva Silva yesterday (10) said that Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa shouldn’t have visited Galle Face during the SLPP goons attacks on protesters.
Silva was commenting on protesters attacking the SJP leader and his colleagues as they walked towards the crowds.
The JVP General Secretary said so addressing the media at the party headquarters in Pelawatte.
Everybody should be careful. People hate to see politicians travelling in luxury cars with security contingents. People detested the politicians’ attitude of trying to stay above them. The Opposition Leader went there in his luxury vehicles with his security guards and henchmen. So, he had to face the wrath of the people.
Go and see what happens on the roads. Angry people stop only luxury vehicles. They have a reasonable anger against them because they know that they have to live without food because the politicians and their officials travel in those petrol guzzlers.
The Opposition leader should know where he should go. On the other hand, the prevailing public anger is also against him,” Silva said.
Asked to comment on his party leaders visiting Galle Face and coming out without incidents, Silva said: Our party has been there right from the beginning. We have our youth, cultural, student and women wings at the Galle Face. Our leaders did not go there because we did not want to stamp our seal on a people’s struggle. We are part of that struggle. Yet, there was an incident when the SLPP set its goons on the struggle. So, our leaders had to rush there. Leaders have to do that. Our leaders did not go there with escorts of security and VIP vehicles. We went there and saw what happened and supported them in whatever possible manner and left that place. We did not go there to mark our presence. The Opposition Leader and others have been rejected by the people because they too are responsible for the crisis, and on the other hand their intentions are to score political points.”
SLFP Leader Maithripala Sirisena has written to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe today saying the SLFP will support forming a new government with Wickremesinghe, senior sources said.
In the letter, Sirisena said party members had sought a meeting with Wickremesinghe and a time and date are now being worked out for the discussions.
So far the SLPP and SLFP have pledged support to Wickremesinghe with political sources saying discussions were also ongoing with the 11 party alliance members and opposition political groups. (Jamila Husain)
Four suspects have been arrested on charges of the murder of MP Amarakeerthi Athukorala and his security officer during the recent unrest earlier this week.
The arrests were made today (May 15).
Two of the accused have been handed over to the Criminal Investigation Department for further investigations.
The other two were produced before the Attanagalle Magistrate’s Court today.
Sri Lanka Police says it has arrested a total of 230 suspects in connection with curfew violations, looting, assaults, public and private property damages and other offences following the unrest that broke out on the 9th of May.
According to police spokesperson, 68 of the arrestees are currently in remand custody.
In a statement, SSP Nihal Thalduwa said 71 suspects were arrested in the Western Province, 43 in the Southern Province, 17 in the Central Province, 36 in the North-western Province, 47 in the North-central Province, 13 in Sabaragamuwa Province, one in Northern Province and two from Uva Province.
Since early 2020, the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government appeared to implement a plan with several components for the external sector. These components included securing of multi-lateral and bi-lateral loans, monetization of selected assets, obtaining Central Bank SWAPs, promoting Hambantota Industrial & Pharmaceutical Zones, Colombo Port City and other FDIs, and increasing non-debt inflows, remittances and exports. That plan did not contemplate an IMF programme. That official government stance was well known and in place until the President announced that he was seeking an IMF programme on 15th March 2022.
It will also be noted that those who were constantly urging the Government to seek an IMF programme, were claiming that Sri Lanka would then be able to access funding of about USD 3,000 million via an IMF programme and other borrowings.
In that background, it would be helpful to assess what was achieved by the Sri Lankan authorities in the last year through the alternative strategies, without an IMF programme.
The analysis of publicly available data shows that the Government secured forex cash loans of almost USD 1,300 million from the China Development Bank, while the CBSL obtained a SWAP of USD 1,550 million from the Peoples Bank of China.
The CBSL also secured bridging finance” of over USD 1,500 million from India through the postponement of the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) settlements and a further SWAP of USD 400 million from the Reserve Bank of India.
In addition, another SWAP from the Bangladesh Bank was obtained for USD 200 million.
All those inflows added up to USD 4,950 million.
In fact, it was by using these new funds, and the brought forward reserves of the CBSL that the 3 ISBs totalling USD 2,500 million in 2020, 2021 and 2022 plus other maturing debt had been
settled, while also providing significant liquidity support of nearly USD 2,000 million to the State Banks, and forex for urgent essential imports of around USD 1,500 million for food, fuel, gas, coal, medicines, etc.
In addition, the Government finalized a trade credit line of USD 1,000 million for oil imports and USD 1,000 million for other essential imports from India and these facilities have already been accessed from late March 2022 onwards.
Further, based on an appeal from the Sri Lankan President to the Chinese President in January 2022, China had also indicated that it was ready to arrange USD 1,000 million as a liquid finance facility and USD 1,500 million for import financing. In fact, that was officially referred to by China’s Ambassador in Sri Lanka on 17th March 2022 and Sri Lanka’s Ambassador in China on 12th April 2022. On the basis of the above assurances from China and India, further commitments of USD 4,500 million were also assured.
In addition, it has also been reported at intervals that negotiations with several other Middle Eastern Governments and Central Banks were also on-going and although by the end March 2022, those had not been successful, some of those engagements may still have potential for success in the future.
It may also be noted that the Government’s effort to raise USD 250 million from the partial divestment of West Coast Power, and a further USD 100 million from the partial divestment of the Eastern Terminal of the new Colombo Port, did not bear fruit due to political reasons, although that was also a part of the Government’s plan to raise non-debt inflows.
It may also be noted that the secondary market for Sri Lankan ISBs was trading at highly elevated levels throughout 2020 and 2021, and it is very unlikely that the Government would have been able to access funds from the international bond markets during that Covid-stricken period, even atexorbitantly high interest rates. Hence, obtaining funds at low single-digit interest rates from bi-lateral sources was the better option, if not the only option, from that point of view as well.
In any event, in the light of the materialised receipts of USD 4,950 million and credible commitments of USD 4,500 million, the decision taken by the Government to pursue its stated path could be justified, since the option of bilateral support and other declared strategies was a lot less controversial and risky than pursuing a tough IMF programme that could have been quite painful to the people (high taxes and interest rates, depreciated currency, sale of national assets, etc) and long-drawn out.
In fact, the situation would have been grave from about a year ago, if the aforementioned forex inflows had not been arranged by the authorities and the commitments not obtained, whilst only relying on a possible IMF programme, which could have been delayed or dragged on for whatever reason, even if the IMF had been approached an year earlier.
It must also not be forgotten that it was during the period 2015-2019, while following an IMF programme, that the then Government issued an additional net USD 10,000 million of ISBs which could be termed the origin of the current external debt problem.
As a direct consequence, the Government’s external debt shot up by 65% and forex debt servicing tripled, while the GDP was almost stagnant at around the USD 80 to 84 billion levels.
Sri Lanka’s external debt problem was further aggravated from 2020 onwards, by about USD 4.5 billion of the country’s annual forex inflows suddenly drying up due to the collapse in tourism, and about USD 1.5 billion reducing in 2021, due to the Hawala proliferation affecting Workers remittances.
In any event, it must be clearly understood that seeking a programme with the IMF is a decision to be taken by the Cabinet of Ministers, and not by officials. If the Cabinet had taken a policy decision one year or even two years ago to approach the IMF and informed the country of the Government’s intention to do so, the entire governmental machinery including the CBSL and MOF would have complied with that decision. In fact, that happened on 15th March 2022, when the President made the official announcement that the Government would seek an IMF programme.
Unfortunately, the true situation has been misinterpreted, which explains why the blame is being pinned on the former Governors of the Central Bank, former Secretary to the President, and former Secretary to the Treasury as being responsible” for Sri Lanka not embarking on an IMF programme. They seem to have forgotten that such a decision should have been taken by the Cabinet of Ministers, and not by officials.
In any event, even at this stage, it may be useful for those persons to familiarize themselves with case studies of past IMF programmes” in similar circumstances in other countries, as well as understand the repercussions of sovereign debt default”. They should probably do that before hailing a possible “IMF programme” and the sovereign debt default” as Sri Lanka’s new panacea for all ills.
It may still be possible that those steps which are today being hailed, may be the very cause of a very serious, irretrievable and unmanageable economic and social outcome that may haunt Sri Lanka for a long time to come.
Dr. Chula Rajapakse MNZM United Sri Lanka Association.
To:
Hon Nanaia Mahuta,
Minister of Foreign Affairs,
Ministry of Foreign Affairs .
NZ Parliament.
Dear Minister,
I am writing to say how pleased I was to read your tweet and that of NZ High Commissioner in Colombo, informing us of your decision to make the above donation to help Sri Lanka in it’s hour of need.
It makes me immensely proud, as a New Zealander of Sri Lankan origin, that despite being a small nation and economy, New Zealand has been the first cab off the rank, from among western nations, to come to Sri Lanka’s aid in it’s current crisis. You have also chosen a group in Sri Lanka that has been significantly affected currently, demonstrating not only your concern but also of your being well informed of SL’s current needs.
My mind goes back to the 2004 Asian Tsunami, when New Zealand, then under PM Helen Clark, was again a most prominent & generous donor that enabled our association to build 60 brand new homes of SL’s western coast to replace 60 destroyed by the tsunami.
I haven doubt with these thanks and reflections , I am also reflecting the thoughts of many thousands of Sri Lankan origin, who now call New Zealand, home.
Permit me also to record our appreciation of the efforts of the Sri Lankan born MP in the NZ parliament, Vanushi Walters, who I know, has been advocating very vigorously to help Sri Lanka. This outcome , which though the first hopefully will not be the last, will no doubt please her too.
The Muslim Council of Sri Lanka wishes our Buddhist brethren peace and contentment on the auspicious day of Buddha Jayanthi (Vesak) where millions around the world follow the teachings of the Buddha and commemorate the birth, attainment of enlightenment and the passing away of the Buddha.
Vesak”, on the Day of the Full Moon in the month of May, is the most sacred day to millions of Buddhists around the world. It was on the Day of Vesak two and a half millennia ago, in the year 623 B.C., that the Buddha was born. It was also on the Day of Vesak that the Buddha attained enlightenment, and it was on the Day of Vesak that the Buddha in his eightieth year passed away.
We pray for peace and prosperity for all Sri Lankans and to get over the difficult social and economic crises that our country is facing.
We call upon all Sri Lankans to support the recovery efforts and austerity measures of the Government that may be necessary in the immediate term, reduce consumption to the minimum and help those in need with food and other basic essentials in keeping with the traditions of Vesak and the spirit of giving taught by all faiths practiced in Sri Lanka.
Crises prompt proposals for management, recovery and future prosperity. Of the many we’ve seen, perhaps on account of public profile, the set of proposals submitted by the Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL) is one which calls for serious consideration. Indeed, the BASL proposals have been approved by multiple political groups/individuals including the President and the main party in the Opposition, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). What is offered here is a review. The BASL document is organised under three headings, background, objectives and proposals. Let us consider them in this order.
Background: Yes, the economic crisis is grave. The crisis however has little to do with the political architecture . The political unrest was spurred by the economic debacle which of course was exacerbated by horrendous policy decisions and brought to tipping point by the unleashing of goons by ruling party politicians in an exercise where the then Prime Minister is clearly culpable.
All this, however, has little to do with the alleged failures of the Executive Presidency as the BASL insists. The BASL believes that ‘meaningful parliamentary oversight’ would have done the trick. However, we’ve had presidential terms without such economic hardships even though there wasn’t any meaningful parliamentary oversight. On the other hand, there have been and there are countries without executive presidencies that have suffered and are suffering economic collapses. The ‘background’ as articulated by the BASL, appears more like a necessary preamble to shoot down the 20th Amendment which of course has its flaws.
The people are demanding a system change, the BASL claims.‘System change,’ though, was but a footnote in the agitational tract. The BASL speaks of constitutional amendments and institutional rearrangement. Good. Political stability. Yes. Calling for responsibility is fine too. Obtaining it is another matter. However, the BASL has sketched the situation decently enough.
Objectives: Let’s move to the five stated objectives: a) create political, economic and social stability in the country, b) create an environment to address the fundamental problems that have brought about the current crisis (and imperil future reforms), c) restructure external debt and enter into appropriate programmes with multilateral institutions including the IMF and for that purpose to appoint the financial and legal advisers and negotiate a debt standstill pending debt restructuring, d) obtain bridging finance [which] together with the savings arising from the debt standstill to be used to procure uninterrupted supply of essentials to the People until such time the debt restructuring, and the IMF program is in place, will eliminate the shortages in power, fuel, gas, medicines, food etc., and e) create an environment to combat corruption and to ensure accountability and strengthening independent institutions.
Of these, ‘a’, ‘b’ and ‘e’ are hard to object to. They are easily written as well. Everyone wants stability, everyone wants root causes addressed and everyone wants corruption ended, accountability ensured and independent institutions strengthened. The other two, ‘c’ and ‘d’ are the giveaways.
I can understand ‘economic recovery’ or ‘economic stability’ as an objective (which of course is already in ‘a’), but it is puzzling that the BASL thinks seeking IMF support is an objective. A suggested means to an end would have been defensible. More on the IMF (as per the specifics in the BASL proposals proper) later.
Proposals: The proposals are framed by a clearly stated ‘overarching requirement,’ viz a stable Government with the ability to implement reforms domestically and the ability / credibility to negotiate with the IMF, other multilateral agencies, and friendly countries to help Sri Lanka get out of the economic crisis.’
The first part is almost intuitive. We do need political stability and a government capable of implementing domestic reforms. The second part is about seeking outside support, again understandable. Why the IMF though? And why is it an ‘overarching requirement’? Cannot the BASL see beyond the IMF? Is the BASL aware of what that particular path to salvation has resulted in? Surely the post-1977 history of Sri Lanka has taught all of us that the IMF is a) part of the system that got us into this mess, and b) is a problem and cannot be part of the solution? Is neoliberalism, discredited and proven untenable on multiple counts, some kind of overarching touch-me-not for the BASL? It would be interesting to know a) if the BASL sought and obtained advice from economists, and b) if so, who these economics are (as it is said, ‘before studying economics, study the economists).
Let’s move to the proposals proper. The first is a useful and important caveat. The BASL demands adherence to constitutional provisions. More critically, the BASL insists that ‘transitional provisions’ recommended not be used as precedent. If any of these proposals are worked into policy at this time, such caveats should be included and emphasised.
Proposals 2-6 relate to constitutional reform. Proposals 7 and 8 are about an interim operational architecture (logically, these should have preceded constitutional matters, given the initial and cautionary note). Number 9 refers to the Presidential Commission of Inquiry appointed to Investigate Allegations of Political Victimisation during the Yahapalanaya years. This seems to be a cherry-picked issue (a first year law student could come up with several dozens of issues similar to this). Proposals 10-12 are nuts and bolts stuff pertaining to a Common Minimum Program (CMP) put together by the the proposed ‘Cabinet of National Unity (CNU)’, in consultation with the proposed ‘Advisory Council’ which would be appointed as per Proposal No 8. The last, i.e. No 13, sets timelines: the duration of the ‘Government of National Unity’ and when parliamentary elections are to be held. Let’s consider these sets of proposals.
Constitutional Reform (Proposals 2-6) via a 21st amendment: With respect to immediate amendments, it’s essentially a matter of repealing the 20th Amendment and restoring the 19th while retaining the current number of judges in the higher courts. Provisions regarding the Constitutional Council (CC) and Independent Commissions (ICs) are to be complemented by, the BASL proposes, enhanced financial independence, transparency and accountability.
The following needs to be stated, if only parenthetically:
[The passage of the 19th Amendment made a mockery of judicial review and set a very bad precedent which, interestingly, was not leveraged in the passage of the 20th Amendment. An article published in the Daily Mirror on the 21st of February, 2019 titled ‘Constitutional Council and the poverty of independence, intellect and integrity’ elaborates on this. Then there’s also the issue of dual-citizenship. The 19th effectively blocked dual-citizens and the 20th removed it. The former was politically motivated and the latter too. The fact remains that this country has been wrecked by citizens as well as dual citizens. Most importantly, those in whose hands the BASL, among others, wants to put the country and its future, the IMF, is not run by citizens or even dual-citizens but foreigners].
The BASL has ignored completely the fact that the composition of the CC completely reneges on the spirit of the 19th Amendment, i.e. clipping the wings of the President and inserting independent oversight. Seven out of the ten members were to be parliamentarians. The other three, nominated jointly by the Leader of the Opposition and Prime Minister were to be ‘persons of eminence and integrity who have distinguished themselves in public or professional life and are not members of any political party.’ The majority of ‘independents’ who sat on the CCs from the time the 19th was operationalised were ideologically/politically aligned with the then ruling coalition. In effect then, the CC of the 19th Amendment was no better than the Parliamentary Council of the 18th Amendment (which of course was an even worse piece of legislation for other reasons).
The CC, then, would inevitably be a slanted body. The impartiality of the ICs that the CC sets up, would be, again, inevitably compromised. We know in hindsight that the conduct of the various CCs in appointing ICs was marked by political bias and incompetence. Independence (or otherwise) is dependent on the process of selection and if the composition of the CC and the constitutionally sanctioned process are flawed, it is hard to obtain. The BASL ought to have paid more attention to the relevant clauses of the 19th Amendment.
Next the BASL suggests additions. Necessitating approval of the CC for appointments of the Governor of the Central Bank and the Monetary Board, certainly broadens the process. This is not necessarily a bad thing except, as mentioned, the CC as per the 19th is necessarily a politically compromised body. If the composition issue is fixed, then it’s fine, one could argue. Then again, why only the Governor and the Monetary Board? How about the Attorney-General, the Auditor-General and heads of similar institutions? The BASL need not have been selectively specific. The proposal could have been worded in general terms to cover all such posts. On the other hand, why leave it to the whims and fancies of a group of people oddly chosen? Couldn’t the BASL have proposed the setting up of robust mechanisms to affirm meritocracy?
The last sub-proposal, that of the CC-recommended body recommending presidential pardons, seems to have been hurriedly inserted. There is already an established procedure for presidential pardons. A revisit wouldn’t have harm. Shifting the power to give the final green light from the president to some other body would make the term ‘presidential pardon’ ridiculous. One wonders if the BASL took into consideration all the powers of the Executive Presidency or responded to what the BASL knows about or what has had media traction over the past few years.
Next (No 4) comes appointments of ministerial secretaries and the ICs. These are routine exercises. No 5 forbids the President from holding [cabinet] portfolios. Since the 21st seeks to turn the President (who, by the way, secured way more votes than any politician in Parliament and, unlike anyone in the ICs and the three independent members of the CC, is accountable to the people of the country) into a rubber-stamper of the new executive arrangement (Prime Minister and Cabinet), this makes sense. It, however, violates the entire spirit of the current Constitution. Ideally a new constitution or abolition of the executive presidency (which the BASL recommends and which we will discuss presently) should precede these kinds of changes which, essentially, amount to constitutional tinkering. It is also disconcerting that the BASL has not taken issue with the fact that ‘National Government’ as per the 19th Amendment remains undefined. The problems of this vagueness came to the fore during the Yahapalana dispensation, especially at the time of the parliamentary crisis in 2018. No 6 sets a timeline for abolishing the Executive Presidency. It may require a referendum though since the incumbent was elected by the people. The Supreme Court would have a say, no doubt. Attributing all ills to the Executive Presidency is downright silly. Curtailing of presidential powers is defensible, but calling for the abolishing the office without addressing important safeguards embedded in the Executive Presidency on other matters amounts to gross negligence. The BASL appears to be unaware of the implications in relation to the (illegally ‘enacted’) 13th Amendment. If the BASL had proposed relevant caveats/amendments or even a repeal of the 13th, the demand could be half-way legitimate. They have not. Indeed, if the BASL proposal is implemented as is, it opens the path not to federalism but to separation. The BASL has not addressed this serious issue.
Now, is an executive presidency by definition made for error and curtailing of freedoms? Are systems that do not have executive presidencies necessarily better and do they ensure countries don’t go bankrupt and are insured against political crises? It’s all about checks and balances, but these need to be discussed and carefully crafted. The BASL has not proposed any new checks and balances. They have gone with what they, erroneously, believe to be a fantastic piece of legislation, the 19th Amendment. They are so wrong.
The operational architecture (Proposals 7-9): ‘The immediate’ is laid out in Proposal No 7. The BASL proposes a cabinet of 15 ministers in an Interim Government of National Unity. The swearing in of Ranil Wickremesinghe has of course scuttled the idea of unity. The BASL proposes that in the absence of ‘unity’ a vacancy be created to shoo-in an outsider. We are no longer talking about legitimacy and mandate given ‘exigencies of the situation,’ so this could also be considered. If Wickremesinghe’s government collapses that might be an option that will be brought back into the discussion. Overall, there’s nothing seriously wrong with No 7.
Number Eight is where the BASL does itself the greatest disservice. Here, the BASL proposes an independent Advisory Council (AC) consisting of 15 qualified professionals from disciplines corresponding to the 15 ministries. The BASL insists, ‘All major policy decisions of the Government to be taken in consultation with the Advisory Council in a transparent manner.’
What is this Advisory Council? The BASL says the AC will be appointed following consultation between the Interim Government and ‘all relevant, independent, apolitical professional/trade/civil society organisations.’ Is the BASL going to guarantee relevance, independence, the apolitical nature of these organisations and the people who run them? And to whom, pray, are these organisations and their bosses answerable? Certainly not the people of this country.
We have seen what ‘advisors’ can do. We have seen what additional centers of administrative authority can do to the institutional arrangement and the institutions therein. Pundits and punditry are ace put-offs. We do have an administrative service and therefore each ministry will have a secretary with specific functions. Where needed, there is provision for such individuals to obtain advice from relevant experts. At the end of the day, if the BASL proposals are implemented, ’experts’ will call the shots but they won’t land anywhere close to the intended target.
The ninth proposal seeks the Special Presidential Commission of Inquiry mandated to investigate allegations of political victimisation rescinded. Implied here is that the BASL believes there was no victimisation whatsoever during the Yahapalana years. However, if one assumes that the BASL, although this is not spelled out, objects to the possibility of witch-hunts, Number 9 makes sense. The BASL could have gone beyond this measure and insisted on provisions to ensure that such witch-hunts don’t get off the ground.
The Program (Proposes 10-13): Number 10 is about preparing a ‘Common Minimum Program (CMP)’. The Cabinet is required to design this in collaboration with the AC. Even if we assumed (and we are being generous here) that the AC is ‘independent’ and have ‘expertise,’ the BASL essentially straight-jackets the AC and the Cabinet by way of an operational framework.
The CMP ‘conditions’ have some valid features such as enacting necessary amendments to the Monetary Law, strengthening the independence of the Central Bank, immediate resolution of the shortages of essential goods and services, upholding the Rule of Law, recovery of state assets, campaign finance, declaration of assets and liabilities, revisiting the Prevention of Terrorism Act, timeframes for elections etc. Essentially the BASL wants problems alleviated, fiscal discipline, professionalism and accountability. The BASL stops short of demanding better measures to audit one and all, not just politicians the President downwards, but, say, professionals such as lawyers, doctors, tuition teachers etc. Yes, those are ‘details,’ but then again in this document the BASL does fiddle with details on occasion.
The meat of the BASL brief with regard to the CMP is economic. Again, the IMF is seen as a saviour. Not surprisingly the BASL wants to sell off state assets. It’s perfectly fine to ensure that awarding of tenders is conducted in a transparent manner. Such procedural caveats are good. However, the BASL does not seem to understand or care about the fact that the IMF is a part of the system, that the Bretton Woods institutions keep systems/countries on the edge, ensure scandalous value appropriation by a few at the cost of disempowering the vast majority of the particular population.
Number 11 proposes that the CMP must include the abolition of the Executive Presidency. We’ve discussed the matter above. Number 12 insists that the Interim Government presents a budget based on the CMP. This goes without saying and in the saying we will have all the problems raised above adequately mirrored. It cannot be a pretty picture.
The last proposal is about the tenure of the Government of National Unity, 18 months. So, the incumbent president will be out in 15 months, and as things stand Ranil Wickremesinghe would have free rein for three months plus six weeks as head of a caretaker government overseeing General Elections. Enough time to obtain a decisive edge over political rivals. An insurance policy written for a preferred political force, then? The BASL could have done better.
Conclusion: Taken as a whole, the BASL proposals have merits and demerits. That they were accepted without reservation by political groups such as the Samagi Jana Balavegaya says a lot about the seriousness of that political party and anyone else which doffed hats to the BASL. All that said, it is worthy of study, but only if it is considered to be nothing more than a ‘discussion paper’ for a program that seeks to resolve the multiple crises Sri Lanka is ridden with. An uncritical embrace would be out of order. malindadocs@gmail.com
[Malinda Seneviratne is the Director/CEO of the Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research and Training Institute. These are his personal views.]
Whatever the aspiration of the protesters in Sri Lanka, the chaos they created has caused the messiah to appear in the form of the IMF. For the IMF to be effective, it needed a government it could vibe with. That there could not have been a better choice for the job of Prime Minister than Ranil Wickremesinghe became clear as daylight the moment he was sworn in.
Ranil Wickremesinghe’s appointment and the quick formation of an inclusive government are first steps in addressing the crisis and promoting stability. We encourage meaningful progress at the IMF and long term solutions that meet the needs of all Sri Lanka.”
This instant approval of RW is by US Ambassador Julie Chung.
She knows RW as someone who has always been supportive of American presence in Sri Lanka in every shape and form. He clashed with President Srisena who was not inclined to sign the Status of Forces agreement exactly as the Americans wanted. There can be no better candidate for such abject surrender than someone as politically weak as RW. His UNP was decimated in the last elections and he did not win a single seat.
This is farcical democracy with the military on the roads and people under curfew” wrote Activist Social Scientist, Dr. Darini Rajasingham Senanayake.
RW’s appointment has been greeted with dismay across the board. For political oxygen he was seen prostrating before hawkish Sinhala clergy who would bless the US presence to eliminate Chinese presence from the island. China is on their wrong side because of Tibet. This wing of the clergy is also happy with India for having created the Union Territory of Ladakh by bifurcating Kashmir. There were celebrations in their Viharas when the Union territory was created.
This is all part of the comeback that the US is staging in South Asia after the excruciatingly painful debacle in Afghanistan in August. Even that may not have been such a humiliating retreat in retrospect. President Vladimir Putin’s adviser, Valery Fadeyev told me as much in the course of an hour long zoom interview last week. Who knows, he said, the US may have simply transferred power to the Taleban.
Sometimes political shifts alter geography as well. After 1947 Indian diplomacy, to a large extent, consisted in neutralizing Pakistan everywhere. With the creation of Bangladesh in 1971, the geography of South Asia changed. India become a large country surrounded by small ones. These countries, in concert, began to balance power by flourishing a Chinese card in their pocket. It was to neutralize this card that Atal Behari Vajpayee, as External Affairs Minister, made what he thought would be an epoch making visit to China in 1979. Den Xiaoping had other priorities: he had just launched his four modernizations in 1978. A somewhat charged up Deng decided to teach Vietnam a lesson” in 1979, same year as Vajpayee’s visit.
The visit was something of a disaster. Later, several Prime Ministers, including Vajpayee visited Beijing. Bilateral relations were up and down but the border, viewed from two different perspectives, remained insoluble.
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990-91 provided the US with is Sole Super Power moment. Manmohan Singh’s economic reform 1991 onwards brought India in line with the US on many issues. It is forgotten that Narendra Modi’s arrival in Gujarat on 7 October, 2001 to take over from Keshu Bhai, coincided with the US fireworks in Afghanistan in pursuit of Osama bin Laden. It electrified Hindutva.
Islamophobia was the flavor of the season when the Godhara disaster leading to an anti Muslim pogrom of February 2002 happened. There was perfect harmony between the Bush-Blair Islamophobia and our communalism. Intelligence agencies kissed each other and became chums sharing or creating data on terrorists.
The US began to look in weak health after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. What magnified American decline was the corresponding rise of China. With diligence and with Chinese help, Vladimir Putin build Russia up into a power which it is today.
China-Russia declaration of friendship without limits”, set the cat among the pigeon, in the Western camp. Just about this time came the humiliating images from Afghanistan.
The American century was a pipedream. The US was in retreat. Even steady camp followers like India began to cultivate other options. Yes, we were in the Quad but then what is this exclusive Anglo Saxon club called AUKUS? How reliable is the US?
India’s balanced votes in the UN on Ukraine are clear indications of diminishing faith in a policy of relying too much on one power.
The image of a tennis racket comes to mind to understand how New Delhi may have felt when the US left Afghanistan. Imagine the wiring of the racket as Afghanistan where once the American presence gave New Delhi comfort. Taleb-Pakistan nexus was the Indian nightmare.
Post American departure, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, China and Russia are all peering into Afghanistan. India is somewhere at the throat, joining the shaft to the rim or frame. The US has gone beyond two oceans. This altered Geography was disconcerting, a pressure on New Delhi to live in peace with neighbours, even the ones with border issues.
Pakistan is part of our internal politics, just as India is Pakistan’s. We need communal temperatures on tepid heat for the national mood to be boosted to a feverish pitch when required by, say, a Balakot. Remember Love Jihad, beef, hijab, stone pelting from mosques keeps the mood in a saffron hue. The national mood is galvanized only when communalism is tied to nationalism. In other word for big game hunting Kashmir and Pakistan are required as issues. Settlement of Kashmir or peace with Pakistan is not in our interest atleast until 2024.
So, we are relieved that the Americans are making a comeback in South Asia, first Pakistan, now Sri Lanka, next……… The people in these countries can stand in long queues till eternity because there is neither food in the shops nor petrol in the pumps.
The phoenix is an immortal bird associated with Greek mythology (with analogs in many cultures) that cyclically regenerates or is otherwise born again. Associated with the sun, a phoenix obtains new life by arising from the ashes of its predecessor. Some legends say it dies in a show of flames and combustion, others that it simply dies and decomposes before being born again -Wikipedia
Sri Lanka’s political equivalent to the mythological Phoenix, Ranil Wickremasinghe, has risen again to become the Prime Minister of the country for the sixth time. The challenge before him on this occasion perhaps is the biggest that he will encounter and his ability to deliver some redress to the country now in economic ruin and social disarray will surely test his mettle as a leader.
He comes back to the hall of power with strange credentials. He is the only UNP member of the Parliament and that too from its national list. The UNP he led at the last election polled less than 250,000 notes nationally and did not win a single seat. Wickremasinghe himself did not get elected. He still leads the party, and has done so since 1994 and he and his party have lost all elections they contested bar two.
In terms of his economic management credentials, during his time as the Prime Minister from 2015 to 2019, and with constitutional powers vested in the Prime Minister and the Parliament under the 19th amendment, he presided over a less than impressive economic performance that saw the GDP growth falling from nearly 7% when he took office, to 2.75% when he left office. Similarly, what now has come to sink the country, the foreign debt as a percentage of GDP increased from 70% to 96% when he left office. It is reported that the component within this debt that is the rope that is strangling the country, the International Sovereign Bond component, rose from USD 5 Billion in 2015 to USD 17 Billion by 2019.
Wickremasinghe takes office within the backdrop of the worst economic situation the country has ever faced, which he too has never faced, and takes on a massively daunting task to initially provide relief to millions of people whose life has been so adversely affected, so much so that they collectively feel they cannot fall further into an abyss as they already are in one without a bottom.
His task has been made even more daunting considering that he will not be leading a multi-party government that includes the SJB, JVP, the SLFP and the 11 independents who have placed their parties above the interests of the country. The SLPP has assured support although whether this is the entirety of the SLPP is not yet known. All parties however have assured Wickremasinghe their support for policies that are in the best interest of the country.
At this juncture, Wickremasinghe’s not so impressive credentials mentioned above and thus his weaknesses, could well be his strengths. The UNP is in doldrums, and it is unlikely it can make a comeback to the national limelight before the next election. This could be the first phase of such a comeback, but certainly will not be sufficient to elevate it past the SLPP, SLFP or the SJB, and of course the JVP. So, one could take it that the UNP leader has placed the country above his party and taken on this almost impossible and some say even suicidal task to bring some life back to a dying Sri Lanka.
Wickremasinghe also has an advantage in not having ministers in his cabinet from the SJB, SLFP and the JVP, and therefore a freer hand to operate and steer economic policies that could rejuvenate the country. He could, if he is wise as many seem to claim, seek advice and counsel from experts rather than politicians to guide the country’s destiny.
Some of his first acts point to the right direction. The immediacy and absolute urgency of finding solutions to overcome gas, diesel, medicine, and food shortages is one. Discussing the convening of a donor consortium with diplomatic heads from China, India, USA, UK amongst others is another.
As the writer mentioned in an earlier article, the chance of raising as much as a USD 10 billion donor funded relief package is within the realm of a possibility. This coupled with an IMF intervention to restructure the country’s debt, in particular the suffocating ISB debt, could be the basis to give life to the country and its people.
Wickremasinghe has also signaled clearly that he wishes for the Galle Face confab to continue. This is welcome. It has been incorrectly touted as a protest, although it did commence as one. It has now gone beyond that, and it is a venue for ideas on the future direction of the country. It is therefore a confab and not a protest, a word that can be misinterpreted and misunderstood easily. These types of civil confabs should be encouraged not just in Galle Face but throughout the country, so that the prevailing political system would change and a new system that stops producing the caliber of politicians who have brought the country to its knees is introduced.
Something the Prime Minister has not stated yet, but what he should advocate without interfering in the activities of the Central Bank that is responsible for monetary policy, is the question of currency stability. Consideration should be given to ending the floating of the rupee, an exchange rate fixed and to be reviewed every 6 months. Some amount of price stability of essential goods, a greater chance of more remittances flowing into the country could be the outcome of such a shift in policy.
These measures, if rightly handled and successful, will restore the confidence of possible investors, both overseas and local, the country’s export industry, and import substitution industries. Mr Wickremasinghe should not discount and overlook the many positive features and proposals contained in President Rajapaksa’s own election manifesto and not take a partisan attitude towards them. If he remains true to his stated objective of rising above politics to find solutions, he should consider these and others from other political parties.
It should not be the UNP in the driving seat but Ranil Wickremasinghe, who now has to work with all political parties. His task will be doomed should he be seen to be partisan. In fact if he is wise, and wishes to be the Statesman who guided Sri Lanka to safety, he should temporally step down as the leader of the UNP distancing himself from party politics involving his own party.
There is an abundance of criticisms of what President Rajapaksa has done, why he has not resigned and why he selected Ranil Wickremasinghe. All these may have justifications. However, what is paramount to many ordinary people is about their day to day lives, how they are going to cook their next meal, and how long they will have to wait in queues to get gas, diesel, and when power cuts will end so that they can have a modicum of normalcy in their homes and small-scale entrepreneurs could resume their business activities to make a living. They are wondering how much more they could stretch their meagre savings or what they are borrowing to meet the high prices of basic food items and medicine, gas and fuel. They are wondering what will happen to a sick person in their family should a need arise for that person to be taken to hospital that does not have drugs to treat them and even pharmacies that do not have medicines. They do not hear of solutions from the politicians from all sides, but only about conditions to be met to even begin thinking of solutions. Politicians hunger for power has exceeded the hunger felt by millions of ordinary people for basic foods and how they could cook that food even if they have it.
In this context Prime Minister Wickremasinghe has to be given a chance to deliver some immediate solutions to the people whose limit of suffering is probably past its boiling point and also work on a futuristic, sustainable economic strategy supported by all political parties and civil society.
Myanmar military wants now strategic engagement with Bangladesh military for various reasons. Myanmar-Bangladesh must have mutual strategic engagement as they share common border. Myanmar-Bangladesh have some common problems which need to be resolved bilaterally as soon as possible. Myanmar, Bangladesh need defense diplomacy for cementing their ties with neighbourly spirit. Myanmar must understand that Bangladesh is a good neighbor for Myanmar. The neighbourly friendship needs to be bolstered through defense diplomacy. Defense diplomacy has long been regarded as an important component of international diplomacy and an effective tool for fostering bilateral and regional relations.
Military training cooperation is an important part of military diplomacy and aids in the development of close relationships with other countries.
This type of collaboration also aids in the strengthening of strategic security ties and the resolution of common security challenges.
Bangladesh and Myanmar are two neighboring countries that share a border of 271 kilometers.
Bangladesh gained independence in 1971.
Myanmar recognized Bangladesh as an independent state on January 13, 1972.
Bangladesh and Burma signed a broad trade agreement on August 13, 1973.
On June 1, 1989, three memorandums of understanding were signed to begin border commerce and economic cooperation.
The bilateral partnership between the Myanmar military and the Bangladesh military has a lot of potential. There are a lot of areas where the two countries may collaborate and work together, with the enhancement of relations being the most important.
Myanmar’s military-to-military ties with other countries are crucial for Myanmar, which has been governed by the military for decades. The military of Bangladesh should likewise enhance its links with the Tatmadaw. Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw) should strengthen ties with Bangladesh’s military to safeguard common bilateral interests.
Myanmar’s military can collaborate with Bangladesh’s military to broaden the scope of their relationship and explore deeper cooperation in areas such as counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism, Bangla-language skills, Burmese-language skills, joint naval and air exercises, and intelligence sharing in the Bay of Bengal region. In order to combat trans-border crimes such as illegal arms trade, drug trafficking, and human trafficking, the two military forces can increase mutual cooperation through training exchanges, intelligence sharing, and joint patrolling along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border.
The exchange of military delegations between Bangladesh and Myanmar could open the way for the two countries to resolve their bilateral concerns. Both sides can cooperate and exchange their knowledge and expertise in order to address certain common bilateral issues. Military training exchanges between the two-armed forces can help both sides improve their operational skills. Some examples of sectors of cooperation include combined military exercises, UN peacekeeping operation (UNPKO) training, and disaster management cooperation, as well as exchanging programs, senior-level visits, and medical cooperation, sports events, adventure activities, military tourism, joint cycling expeditions, and adventure training.
In 2019, Bangladesh’s then-Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Aziz Ahmed, embarked on a four-day tour to Myanmar. The goal of the tour was to strengthen both countries’ current military connections and determine the breadth of potential cooperation. General Aziz’s visit to Myanmar was Bangladesh’s first high-profile military visit to Myanmar in over five years. Gen. Iqbal Karim Bhuiyan, the former Chief of the Bangladesh Army, visited Myanmar in 2014 to discuss topics such as trans-border crime and human trafficking. Air Marshal Muhammad Enamul Bari, the Chief of Air Staff, and his five subordinates departed Dhaka for Myanmar in 2019. U Ne Win, President of the Socialist Republic of the Union of Burma (Myanmar), arrived in Dhaka for a four-day official visit on April 26, 1974. Bangladesh President Mr. Muhammadullah and Prime Minister Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman greeted him at the airport. In 2011, Lt. General Myat Hein, the then-Commandant in Chief of the Myanmar Air Force, arrived in Dhaka for a six-day visit to Bangladesh. These types of high-level visits, on the other hand, are critical for both Myanmar and Bangladesh to strengthen ties and improve mutual understanding.
In the past, Myanmar defense officers attended Bangladeshi training schools such as the National Defense College and the Defense Service Command and Staff College (DSCSC). However, in order to maintain a higher level of interest, these training exchanges must be resumed. As a result, Bangladesh and Myanmar should work together to provide additional training opportunities.
The two forces’ joint endeavors may pave the way for stronger ties between the two neighbors. Improved military connections between Bangladesh and Myanmar can help to smooth out ties and resolve long-standing concerns including the Rakhine displaced persons crisis in Bangladesh, maritime disputes, and border-related trans-border crimes.
In general, members of Myanmar’s and Bangladesh’s armed services should exchange visits, training, and joint exercises on a regular basis. These will help to eliminate mistrust and increase trust and understanding. This may also aid in the resolution of the region’s long-standing Rohingya refugee dilemma.
On the environmental front, both Bangladesh and Myanmar should guarantee that global climate conferences do not merely focus on climate issues, but also set actual steps and a constructive framework, with the genuine purpose of reducing environmental degradation.
The only thing that matters for Bangladesh is that there is enormous economic potential for Bangladesh within Myanmar. Bangladesh should have no concerns about the military in Myanmar ruling the show. Regardless of who is in power in Myanmar, Bangladesh must fight for tighter connections. Myanmar’s Constituent Assembly still has a strong military presence. Bangladesh has discovered new opportunities to earn billions by exporting to and investing in Myanmar. As one of Myanmar’s five neighbors, Bangladesh should endeavor to seize such possibilities, strengthen its connections with Myanmar, and take advantage of Myanmar’s economic potential through military diplomacy between the two countries.
Countries like Bangladesh and Myanmar, which are among the worst-affected by climate change, with the worst yet to come, may band together to solve concerns related to global environmental degradation. Aside from the obvious issues of poverty and illiteracy, Bangladesh and Myanmar’s environmental vulnerability is particularly concerning. Basically, through collaborative disaster management systems, operations, and initiatives, the Tatmadaw and Bangladesh military may work together to reduce the risk of regional environmental degradation. The finest example to grasp it was Cyclone Nargis in 2008. This natural disaster impacted both coastline countries. Both Myanmar and Bangladesh have numerous potentials to collaborate in order to reduce the danger and loss of environmental deterioration.
The relations between the two countries are the cross-border communication of general people from the two sides of Bangladesh and Myanmar. The people-to-people connection between two sovereign countries must be made the most effective way to progress together and to keep a peaceful relationship between the concerned countries. This factor is particularly important when the concerned countries are neighbors. There must be a smooth and vibrant relationship between the people of both Bangladesh and Myanmar. Basically, both militaries can promote Trade and Commerce with each other.
Being one of the closest neighbours of Myanmar, both countries should maintain a friendly relationship with each other. Bangladesh armed forces must take effective steps to improve the relations with Myanmar armed forces assuring the zero-tolerance policy of the Bangladesh government against terrorists, human traffickers, illegal drug traders criminals.
Myanmar’s military should take effective steps to foster the ties. It must understand that Bangladesh is a peace-loving country and friendly neighbours. Bangladesh believes in peaceful coexistence. Thus, engagement with Bangladesh would be beneficial for Myanmar also. Military ties between the two neighbouring countries can assure peace, harmony, regional stability, regional greater interest, etc. in the whole regions (South Asia and Southeast Asia)
Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Defence on Saturday denied reports of ex-LTTE cadre regrouping to launch attacks” in Sri Lanka, as reported by The Hindu, citing sources in Indian intelligence.
The article is completely baseless. We have received no intelligence warning of such a security threat,” a Ministry spokesman said. The report, citing Indian intelligence reports, was picked up by Sri Lankan media and widely shared on social media.
Sri Lankan political leaders, too, strongly reacted to the Indian security establishment’s claims. Tamil Progressive Alliance Leader and Opposition legislator from Colombo Mano Ganesan said The Hindu report on #LTTE regrouping” is very disturbing in today’s social context of Sri Lanka where race relations are improving”.
How authentic is this news? What’s the intelligence source? Is it Indian/Foreign? #Indian Media & Authorities are requested give more explanations,” he said.(The Hindu)
Sri Lanka’s new prime minister has told the BBC an economic crisis that has brought misery and unrest is going to get worse before it gets better”.
The country is facing fuel shortages and soaring food prices, with some Sri Lankans forced to skip meals.
Anger over the government’s handling of the crisis has led to violent protests.
Ranil Wickremesinghe was appointed in an attempt to defuse the protests. It is the opposition MP’s sixth stint as prime minister.
In his first interview since taking office, Mr Wickremesinghe told the BBC he would ensure families get three meals a day.
Appealing to the world for more financial help, he said there won’t be a hunger crisis, we will find food”.
The new PM described the Sri Lankan economy as broken”, but he said his message to Sri Lankans was to be patient, I will bring things back”.
Mr Wickremesinghe was sworn-in by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on Thursday, but his appointment has largely been met with dismay, as he is seen as too close to the politically dominant Rajapaksa family.
In his interview, Mr Wickremesinghe said he agreed with the sentiment of protestors who’ve been calling for President Rajapaksa to resign, but said that would not happen. Blaming won’t lead to action, I’m here to see people nourished,” he said.
But he added that he was going to change all the policies of the Rajapaksa government”.
He also called on the international community for help.
We need your assistance for a year, whatever we get from you we will repay. Help us to do it. We are the longest and oldest democracy in Asia,” he said.
Sri Lanka’s economy is in freefall. Food, medicine and fuel have run out or become unaffordable. Some people have died waiting at petrol stations to fill up their tanks.
It is the the island nation’s worst economic crisis since gaining independence from Britain in 1948.
We don’t have kerosene, we don’t have petrol, we don’t have diesel, we don’t have cooking gas and we don’t even have access to wood-fired stoves,” a 68-year-old woman in the Sri Lankan capital Columbo told AFP.
We are struggling everyday to feed our children. Food prices have tripled in the past few days. How are we supposed to manage?”
At the heart of Sri Lanka’s economic woes is that the country is heavily reliant on imports but has been burning through the foreign currency reserves it needs to pay for them.
The economy suffered in the Covid pandemic and tourism was hit by the 2019 church bombings. But experts have also blamed economic mismanagement too.
The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) has decided to support a government established under Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.
The ruling party pledged their support during a meeting of its parliamentary group held under the patronage of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa this morning (May 14).
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe says the support of the country’s youths is expected when finding solutions to overcome the current crisis situation.
He stated this, delivering a statement following bilateral talks with several ambassadors and high commissioners to Sri Lanka today (May 14).
The prime minister met with the ambassadors of South Korea, France, Italy, Norway, EU delegation, Germany, Switzerland and high commissioners of the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
In his statement, PM Wickremesinghe said favourable responses were received from the foreign envoys during the discussion. We have to continue to negotiate with these countries and enter into relevant agreements,” he added.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa appointed four new Cabinet ministers today (May 14) to maintain the affairs of the Parliament and other functions of the country legitimately and stably until a full Cabinet is appointed.
The swearing-in ceremony took place at the President’s House in Colombo this afternoon.
According to the President’s Media Division (PMD), the following parliamentarians were sworn in before the President:
Prof. G.L. Peiris – Minister of Foreign Affairs
Dinesh Gunawardena – Minister of Public Administration, Home Affairs, Provincial Councils and Local Government
Prasanna Ranatunga – Minister of Urban Development and Housing
Kanchana Wijesekara – Minister of Power and Energy
The MP’s death was due to multiple injuries, fractures and internal bleeding, but he had no gunshot wounds, the autopsy report said
Sri Lankan government supporters and anti-government protesters clash outside president’s office residence in Colombo in presence of police officers, Sri Lanka (Image: AP)
A Sri Lankan lawmaker who shot dead an anti-government protester this week was later lynched by a mob, a forensic report showed Friday, contradicting a police report that he died by suicide. Amarakeerthi Athukorala opened fire on people blocking his car’s path in the town of Nittambuwa on Monday, after the country erupted into violence when a gang of government loyalists attacked peaceful protesters.
Police said Athukorala had tried to take refuge in a building and shot himself after being surrounded by about 5,000 people.
The MP’s death was due to multiple injuries, fractures and internal bleeding, but he had no gunshot wounds,” the Lankadeepa newspaper said, quoting the autopsy report.
Athukorala’s police bodyguard died of gunshot injuries, the report said. Police have been ordered to investigate and find out who may have fired the shot.
The duo’s car was surrounded by a large crowd, which had taken to the streets after a club-wielding mob attacked a peaceful protest demanding the government’s resignation over Sri Lanka’s painful economic crisis.
The prime minister, Mahinda Rajapaksa, who protesters blamed for orchestrating the violence, resigned soon afterwards. He was later forced to flee the capital Colombo, taking refuge at a naval base.
A total of nine people were killed in incidents related to the unrest, while at least 225 were wounded and hospitalised.
A overnight curfew is still in place across Sri Lanka.
‘Sri Lankan Tamil outfits abroad have planned attacks to mark Mullivaikal anniversary’
Intelligence agencies have warned of erstwhile cadre of the banned Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) regrouping to launch attacks in Sri Lanka, as the country is embroiled in a deep economic and political crisis.
As the island nation has declared emergency twice amid escalating violent protests, some sections of the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora, with multinational links, were trying to make their presence felt” in the ongoing clashes between protesters and security forces, police sources said on Friday.
Besides planning attacks to mark the Mullivaikal anniversary that falls on May 18, which some groups observe as Tamil Genocide Remembrance Day, the ex-LTTE cadre were also conspiring to avenge the killings of their leader Velupillai Prabhakaran, newsreader Isai Priya and others, who were killed as the ethnic conflict ended after fierce fighting in 2009.
The sources, quoting intelligence inputs, said some erstwhile cadre had entered Tamil Nadu to plan and execute their sinister plans in Sri Lanka. Special teams of the State intelligence and local police, drawn from coastal districts, had mounted vigil along the 1,000 plus km coastline in the State. The Coastal Security Group of the Tamil Nadu police had enhanced the frequency of patrolling along the territorial waters, they said.
Fishermen venturing into the sea were sensitised to the risk factors and advised to look for any suspicious activity or persons in deep sea and along the International Maritime Boundary Line. While coastal security agencies were told to prevent any intrusion of Sri Lankan nationals into India, Superintendents of Police of all coastal districts were told to strengthen check-posts for intensified vehicle check on all roads leading to the sea, the sources added.
Tamil Nadu has been witnessing activities of suspected LTTE sympathisers or its former cadre in the recent years. Last year, the National Investigation Agency arrested a former LTTE intelligence wing operative Satkunam, alias Sabesan, on charges of indulging in drug trafficking with international connections and also raising funds to revive the organisation in Sri Lanka.
In another case, a woman was arrested in Chennai airport, while she was proceeding to Mumbai to draw a huge sum of money lying in a dormant bank account, by fraudulent means. Investigation revealed that she was assigned to raise funds for the revival of LTTE in Sri Lanka, the sources added.
