Dr Sudath Gunasekara Mahanuwara
My prediction on the August 5th General Election
Landslide victory for the SLPP and a white wash for
the UNP and nemesis for all communal political parties and Independent
candidates
What the people
of this country should do at the upcoming election to ensure this reality
Before I present
my write up on the above topic I give here my prediction made on the last
Presidential Election on 14 Oct 2019 in an email I sent to Mr Gothabhaya
Rajapaksa.
Your victory as well as that of the country is a
foregone conclusion. I am repeating, you will be definitely starting with at
least 65 lakhs the minimum that is what the SLPP, UPF and SLFP got at the 2018
Local Government Elections. Looking at the present trend no one should be
surprised even if it exceeds 70 lahks”
(This was the
opening passage of an email I sent to Gothabhaya on 14.Oct 2019)
The accuracy of
my prediction was proved to the letter
when he polled 6,924,255 votes and won that election with a thumping majority and
I take pride in that forecast as I was the only man who said so. Even my
teacher at the University, an internationally acclaimed eminent scholar
emeritus Professor Gerald Peiris expressed his reservations on my conclusion.
But I persistently maintained my conviction and finally it was proved correct.
Similarly I am
making this prediction this time too on the upcoming General election after
making an in-depth study of the political situation on ground by listening to
people in the work place, paddy field and on the street. Changes bound to occur
in the behavior of the electorate between now and the 5th of August also has
been taken in to consideration in arriving at this conclusion. The rousing
welcome received by the President at the SLPP’s inaugural election meeting held
at Anuradhapura today and all other places he went is good forecast of the
prediction I am making in this note.
Dawn of a historic land mark in the political history
of this Island nation
I opine the next
General Election is going to be an important land mark in the political history
of this Island nation for the following reasons. It will also mark a turning
point in the post-Independence period of Sri Lankan politics
The beginning of
this turning point will dawn with this political revolution that will emerge
with the election results on the 6th of August.
A political Revolution
1The SLPP will
get over 175 out of 225 seats in the next Parliament (Eg 155 elected and 20
national list)
2 The divided and disarrayed UNP (R+P camps
together) will settle around 35 the most (elected + national list)
3 TNA 12 elected
and 1 National list member
4 JVP will get
eliminated from the political map of Sri Lanka
5 Others not
belonging to 1 to 3 and sometime Ape Janabala Vegaya.
(These figures
might slightly vary due to the fact there is always a margin of error in statistical calculations. But I
maintain the overall picture want be much different)
6 All
independent candidates will lose and even their deposits will be confiscated
7 The Old UNP
will disappear from the political scene in this country and this Election will
also mark the end of political carriers of many sitting politicians including
those of Ranil and Premadasa, Champika, Rajita, Welgama, Vijitamini Zoysa and
Kiriella and many others of the old stock.
8 The old SLFP
will emerge as the only national political Party in Sri Lanka under Mahinda
Raapaksa if he accepts it cap as the new President
9 Sajit’s camp might
get few seats more than Ranil’s camp with the support of Muslims but Ranil will
remain as the leader of Opposition in the new Parliament as well with the
support of the TNA
10 This Election
will also open the doors for a new Political Party completely under a new
leadership that stands for full freedom from all foreign intervention and that rejects
the original UNP ideology of multi- racial, multi-national and multi linguistic
etc. accepted by D.S. Senanayaka in 1947 to get the so-called Independence from
Briton and also that uphold one nation,
one country and one Law concept among such other conditions that restore
pre-1815 Sinhale geared to take over the
country, on a day on the day the new Government fails to meet the full aspirations
of the Sinhala majority. But that will be an uphill task for two reasons. The
first is the problem of finding a suitable national leader and the second is to
formulate a more pro- National and inward looking Patriotic agenda than that of
the present SLPP under President Gotabahya Rajapaksa.
A political vacuum and the need for another new
national political party
The demise of
UNP at this election will create a big political vacuum. The need for such a
new national political party is called for as both traditional parties, the UNP
and the SLFP are no more there. Although there is a possibility of SLFP
emerging with a new lease of life if MR accepts it’s leadership. But there is
no likelihood of emerging a new political party on the old UNP model. The new Party should be an alternative Sinhala
Buddhist national Political force to the SLPP that is more patriotic, inward
looking and village based, to take over the country,, when one day the SLPP fails
in its duty by the Nation by not making radical changes, the Sinhala Buddhist have
been yearning for 72 long years since 1948. The new party invariably will have
to be built on the Anagarika Dharmapala concept of the Sinhala nation and the
Sinhala State.
The SLPP will however
govern the country under the present patriotic regime at least for 15 years.
That is at least 10 under GR and 5 years under his successor. I predict this
overall result on the basis of two sets of mutually exclusive factors coming in
to play at this election, one negative and the other positive. The most
significant feature of this political revolution is that the interaction of
both these diametrically opposed factors will have negative and disastrous effects
on the UNP vote base as a political party. Vituperative and mudslinging at each
other, devoid of any substance or
constructive political dialogue by these two Camps (Ranil & Sajith)
infested with corrupt, baseless, verbose and vicious political misfits like
Sajit, Rajita, Champika, Vijitamuni Zoysa and Kiriella and extreme communalists
like Hakim and Badurdeen on one side and Bank robbers, traitors like Ranil,
Mangala, Ravi, Range Bandara and jokers like Ranjan Ramanayaka and Mervin
Mervin Silva will enhance the chances of the SLPP to unexpected levels,
recording a landslide victory never expected by any, including even those in
the SLPP and the President’s Office.
Going by the
trend it is very unlikely what the SLPP polled at the presidential Election
will get reduced. As such when SLPP starts with 6,924,255 the minimum they
polled at the Presidential Election, the UNP will be left only something around
2,700,000 (5,564,234–2,900.000 Tamil+ and
Muslim votes) to be divided between R and S factions. It is assumed that
even these 2,700,000 might get reduced even to about 2,500,000, due to the prevailing
confusion and infighting between the two camps and the overall apathy among the
UNP voters. That might also definitely lead to lower turn out of UNP voters at
the polling stations resulting in more SLPP candidates getting elected while
the number of UNP members will get drastically reduced.
First let us look at the negative factors
1This election
is held after a period of 5 years of complete anarchy and political and
economic mismanagement in this country under Sirisena–Ranil- Karu three headed
Government. Going by the present situation in the country, the UNP could be
compared to a sinking and wrecking ship in mid seas caught by a Tsunami, sans a
captain to rescue and navigate it in the proper direction for safety. The SLPP
will bag the benefits of all these confusions thereby increasing its majority in
Parliament.
2 This election
is also held at a time when the country is beset with extremely serious crises
in a plethora of political, economic and social fields and the collapse of
national security and law and order never witnessed before in this country.
3 The country is
going through a serious economic depression after the nation’s Central Bank was
robbed by the then ruling UNP, manipulated by none other than the Prime
Minister of that so-called Government and subsequently the whole country
paralyzed by extremist Muslim terrorist attacks on the economic and religious
nerve centers of the country, now in complete disarray and reached its lowest
growth level in its 72 years of Independence. On the top of it is a time when
the whole world is undergoing one of the
most difficult and unpredictable future due to the world wide Covid 19 pandemic
that has almost crippled the whole world and brought it virtually on its knees
almost to a non-returnable situation.
4 The country’s
economy is also undergoing one of the most difficult times ever in its history
more or less facing a national crisis level with no agricultural or industrial
production and nor exports, and where the main foreign exchange inflow channels
like foreign employment has almost got dried up and printed money has to be
pumped in billions to run the country.
5 Scanty
domestic FE reserves and worldwide economic depression and limitations and
constraints on imports due to global restriction on shipping and international
trade mechanisms has badly affected both exports and imports
6 Meanwhile
continued interference and competition by powerful countries to take control of
the Island’s strategic situation on the great E-W trade route in the Indian
Ocean in view of its importance in the context of emerging supremacy of the
Indo-Pacific zone in world politics and by various International organizations
agencies and countries like UK. Germany, Canada and Norway driven by LTTE
Diaspora elements hostile to this country that are trying to create disunity within
the country for example between the various ethnic and religious groups also
have created many a problem to this country.
The positive
side
1 In spite of
this darker side, after 72 years of So-called Independence on the other hand,
we as a nation have got a patriotic and strong Sinhala Buddhist Statesman in
President Gothabhaya Rajapaksa, as a man with a clear vision and a mission who
has a proven capacity to successfully
face all these challenges of this
multifaceted conundrum and take this country out of the Augean mess it has been
put in to by all politicians who are supposed to have ruled this country for
the past 72 years since the so-called Independence.
None of them
knew the emptiness of fake Independence they got in 1948. As I see it none of
them knew that the kind of Independence given by the British was only a
transfer of continuation of the same British mechanism of governance to a set
of local kalu Suddhas to run the
country as their accredited agents. This is exactly what, we are doing even
today. But the politicians call it Independence and Democracy.
Meanwhile the true Bhumiputras of this country
charged with a sense of patriotism, that is the Sinhala majority both Buddhists
and Catholics have joined hands to elect Gothabhaya Rajapaksa as their newly
found Messiah. They expects the new President to make this country a fully
pledge Independent and sovereign State after this election. This perhaps is the priority number one the people
of this country expect from him. This long overdue political strategy forms the
cornerstone of all the rest, as an Independent, sovereign and free country.
Is Diyasena
Born at last?
Going by his
past record as the Secretary of the Ministry of Defense (2005-2015) as to how
he defeated the LTTE and how he converted Colombo to be recognized as the best
City in South Asia within four years after the war are enough testimonies for
his ability and leadership as a task master. His peerless success in these two
fields almost made him the Sinhala Buddhist benevolent leader overnight; the
nation was desperately looking for seven decades. That is why the whole nation
almost unanimously got him elected as the 8th President of this Island nation
with 6,924,255 votes that gave him an unprecedented majority of 1,360,016 in
spite of numerous false and vicious conspiracies and intrigues’ relentlessly
deployed against him until the last moment by anti-national ant-Sinhala forces
both from within the country and outside the shores to prevent him from getting
even nominations. All such attempts were successfully foiled and finally truth
prevailed, justice won and he got him elected as the 8th President of this
country to the overwhelming joy of Sinhala nation.
The way how he
has conducted in office as well as in personal life since he was sworn in front
of the Ruwanwelimahaseya and his short but dignified and patriotic speech from
the hallowed precincts of the Great Stupa reminded me ancient traditions of our
great Kings who swore in in front of the Mahasangha to rule the Lankan Kingdom
according to the Dasaraaja Dhamma. How he set about thereafter by ordering not
to exhibit his photo in Government offices, reducing his staff, and even
security and banning all state tamasa, reducing the Cabinet to 17 and his
simple dress and manners won the admiration and the hearts of the masses of
this country. How he managed the Covid 19 pandemic when even countries like USA
have miserably failed, has already made him the most outstanding national
leader the post Independent Sri Lanka has produced. The majority in the country
are unanimous on this consensus. For them he is already a national idol and a
hero as well. For the poor and those deprived of their daily bread due to the
Covid 19 disaster, the food basket and the 5000 payment given was manna from
heaven in their difficult times. As for
me I see in him the legendary Diyasena, eulogized in Perakumbasirita by Sri
Thotagamuve Rahula Thera is born at last to rescue this thrice blessed Punyabhuumi,
by Lord Buddha.
Patriotic and honest Sinhala Buddhist task master cum
– true Statesman
All these
actions on his part have convinced the masses that at last after 72 years of
so-called Independence they have got a Patriotic and honest Sinhala Buddhist
task master cum – true Statesman of proven ability and unblemished character
beyond any doubt in Gothabahay Rajapaksa, as the Head of State.
2 At the same
time there is an unprecedented emerging unity among the Sinhala nation from
west to East and North to South and from the sea to the top of Samangira
encompassing the whole country sans all their differences like caste, creed and
religion as one nation.
3 A towering
sense of belonging together is also emerging among the masses throughout the
country as one nation getting polarizes around the exemplary leadership of
Gothabha and Mahinda inspired by the support of the Maha Sangha right round the
country in unison and Catholic clergy headed by His Eminence Cardinal Malcom
Ranjit
4 The splitting
of the UNP (a dead party in any case) in to two parts under two Kalusuddhas,
Ruinil as someone has named him and Sajit a round peg in a square hole, both of
whom have no leadership qualities and don’t feel the pulses of the masses as
both of them being direct products of the Colombian society, do not know what
Sri Lanka is. Both of the think Colombo is Sri Lanka. They are for personal
gain and glory rather than the concern for the common people. This Colombian
leadership of right Royal College products has left the grass root UNPers
disgusted, dismayed, frustrated and high and dry. Majority of UNPers have
already realized that hanging on to out dated UNP will not take them anywhere
under the prevailing situation.
In sum all of
them know pretty well that there is virtually no UNP as an alternative
Political party that can come to power in the foreseeable future. It is already
dead and buried under six feet or more, thanks to Ruinil and Sajit Premadasa.
No one will hear about the UNP after 5th of August.
5 The patriotic
younger generation looking for change and new hopes getting attracted by this
new leadership qualities displayed by Gota have already got rallied round him
6 Nationwide
hope and the dream for political stability under a joint partnership between
the proven and able leadership qualities of the Rajapaksa brothers specially
the charismatic MR and proactive and dynamic Gota the task master who does not
tolerate humbug and who has aptly proved his capacity in his war against the
savages LTTE, as the Defense Sec of the country and as the President of the
country from the day he was elected as
the President have made the people confident that at last they have got
the leadership they were looking for decades who can rescue this country out of
the political, economic and Social mess in to which successive Government have
dumped it.
7 The newly
emerging wave of unprecedented Sinhala Buddhist nationalism and the sense of
patriotism gathering momentum around
this new leadership supported by the three Forces, Professionals, Civil
Servants and the Six National Forces sanga, veda, guru, Govi-kamkaru and
Ranaviru and the youth votes around the country brimming with new hope like a
multi barrel war machine rolling across the battle field is taking the lead for nation building under the new President.
At the same time we see all round auspicious
sings like anti-national elements getting caught and exposed daily clearing the
way for the nation to march forward without any obstacles. In this most
encouraging and welcome backdrop, the Pohottuwa will emerge victorious in a
landslide victory unheard and unseen in the political history of post
Independent Sri Lanka.
My prediction on the 2019 Presidential Election
I predicted Gota
will get 69-70 lakhs at the last Presidential poll and he polled 6,924,255.
Based on the same argument at this election the SLPP should get it increased to
at least 80 lakhs of votes taking in to account the ground reality factors like
the defections from the UNP, JVP, Tamil and Muslim votes and new youth segment.
Even the minorities who are fed up with their own communal minded extremist
politicians who have ruined them over the decades without doing any service to
them are seriously looking for a complete change in Sri Lanka politics.
Therefore the SLPP should bag at least 155 out of 196 elected seats and it will
therefore should bag at least 20 national list pin slots as well, making the total to stand around 175. The UNP
disarrayed factions together are very unlikely to get even 25 lakhs this time
as against the 5,564,239 Premadasa polled at the Presidential election. Both
UNP camps will get 2,500,000 less than what Premadasa got at the Presidential
election. This is the Tamil and Muslim and the JVP components UNP will not get this time.
1 A substantial
number out of UNP voters will also vote with the Pohottuwa this time as they
are convinced that there is no point in betting a losing horse. Majority of
disgusted UNP hard liners will boycott elections and that will also drastically
reduce the UNP votes. The JVP as usual will get eliminated at this election for
their sins they have committed to this nation and they are also very unlikely
to get any national list slots either. The chances of UNP getting Thodamans
votes is also not there at this election as Mahinda has played his cards well,
the SLPP will get a majority of Estate Tamil votes. With Digambarans help Premadasa
might get at least one seat more than Ranils faction on the overall. Even then
it is Ranil who will get elected as the Leader of the opposition as TNA will
support him. Therefore Sajit and his band of Mahadenamutta’s golayas’ will not get even that.
On the other hand even if those brainless
Sinhala Budhhist UNPers who are suffering from chronic and incurable UNP
constipation syndrome fail to realize the gravity and the seriousness of the
crime they are going to commit against the Sinhala nation and the Sinhala
Buddhist civilization in this country by voting an anti-Sinhala, anti- Buddhist
and anti-national force, that is UNP, now fast disintegrating and disappearing
as a political force in no time from the surface of this land, no man or god
can stop the victory of the Sinhala
Buddhist forces led by Rajapaksas. There is a likelihood of all Sinhala forces
drifting towards this historic goal.
Under these
circumstances no one can stop the MR Camp getting at least 175 seats in the
2020 Parliament and it will go down in history as the biggest electoral victory
ever in the post Independent Sri Lanka by any political Party. As for me, I am
fully confident that this miracle will happen on the 5th of August, the results
of which will be obvious by the 6th evening.
My appeal to the Sinhala Buddhist voters
The whole nation should rise in unison as a
mighty force like the Phoenix from ashes under the new patriotic and vibrant
leadership of President Rajapaksa taking the above situation as a stimulant and
a blessing in disguise for us to march forward as one united and determined
nation. I do not think you will get a better chance than this to get your national
aspirations realized again. If you neglect your duty by the nation and the
country at this time, I can vouch you, you might never get such an opportunity like
this at any time in future. Therefore please remember this might be the last
chance you all get to save the Sinhala nation and the Motherland. Going by the
words and the deeds of the UNP right from the beginning in 1948 and more
particularly after 1977 and the present contenders Ranil and Sajit, expecting
any pro- Sinhala and pro- Buddhist action from them is like expecting wings
from tortoises (Ibbangen pihatu
balaporottuwenna wage), Therefore it is the time for all Sinhalese to get
together to vote the SLPP to save the
Sinhala nation the Motherland and the Sasana
Once we do our
duty I am confident Gothabhaya and Mahinda will lay the firm foundation to
rescue this country and the Sinhala Nation from all misdeeds and omissions
committed by all the previous Governments since 1948 at least.
What all of us, the patriotic people of this country
have to do at this election
All the patriotic people of this country have
to give the President a strong and stable Government by voting en-block to the
SLPP at the forthcoming election to enable them to have a strong government exceeding 2/3
majority under MR in Parliament to enable it carry out the Presidents avowed
mission by the nation and our motherland. That I think is the best lesson
patriotic people of this country can teach the communal Tamils and Muslims and
also those International predators and local cynics like Rajan Philip and other
lunatiks like Rajeewa Jayaweera (see Island 27th 2020 At the centre of it will
be Rajapaksa v. Rajapaksa, sounding like Kramer v. Kramer of by Rajan Philip)
who are trying to drive a wedge between Mahinda and Gota to deprive this nation
of this unprecedented golden opportunity of rescuing the Sinhala nation and the
motherland from the Augean mess in to which it has been put in to by all those
who were supposed to have ruled this country since 1948.
Lanka Mataavata
haa Sinhala Jatiyata Jayaweva! Sambuddha Sasanaya Chirath kaalayak araksha
vetwa!
