Last week’s political developments revealed the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde syndrome of two leading minor parties in the country, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). These two parties have mastered the art of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds.

After extending support to Ranil Wickremesinghe, to show that he commands majority in Parliament, the TNA has forfeited its claim to be a party in the Opposition. Thus, TNA Leader Rajavarothiam Sampanthan can no longer claim to hold the post of Opposition Leader. All the TNA MPs, barring Shivashakthi Anandan, who abstained, voted for Wickremesinghe, backing a UNP-sponsored Motion of Confidence.

After August 2015 General Elections, Speaker Karu Jayasuriya appointed Sampanthan as Opposition Leader, although the TNA only had 16 MPs in the House. The claim of a 50-strong Joint Opposition was ignored, because JO MPs were recognized as members of the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), and the remaining 45 MPs were with the Government.

When its membership increased to 70, with several other UPFA members crossing over to the JO, it had staked claims again to be the main opposition. The JO also argued that the TNA was purely a regional party, which only represented the Tamil community, and it could in no way be representative of the national electorate as a whole. These arguments were not taken into consideration, as the UPFA was considered to be a major partner in the Government, despite a vast majority of members sitting in the Opposition.

According to the Speaker’s logic, if the UPFA leaves the Government, there is no reason whatsoever not to recognize the UPFA as the largest party in the Opposition.

The TNA is using the current political developments to its advantage, with its dual principle of supporting Ranil Wickremesinghe and the UNF, while keeping the position of Opposition Leader within the party. The TNA is aware that there is no possibility for the party to be the main opposition, when there are almost two equally balanced national parties in the forefront. In 1977, Appapillai Amirthalingam became the first Tamil Opposition Leader, because the SLFP was wiped out in an election held under the first-past-the-post system. Now, with the proportional representation system, it is impossible to wipe out one of the national parties in an election.

JVP’s deviation

The JVP too has deviated from the position of anti-capitalist (read) anti-UNP, and became the most trusted supporter of Ranil Wickremesinghe.

While voting with the UNP in all the No-Confidence Motions against the Government, the JVP suddenly found that the party cadres, especially the young radicals were not happy about the pro-UNP stance of the Marxist party. As there is a good possibility of JVP cadres crossing over to the more radical Forward Party (Peratugami), the JVP now wants to attack the UNP too, at least in public.

JVP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake decided to attack the UNP and Ranil Wickremesinghe in Parliament for the ills of the country. This came within days of extending fullest support to the UNP at Parliamentary No-Confidence Motions.

In a sudden change of heart, Dissanayake claimed that his party did not care who the Prime Minister was, but was troubled about the unconstitutional method used to get rid of Wickremesinghe and appoint Mahinda Rajapaksa. The Prime Minister post will be held by a person from either of the main camps, the UNP or the UPFA. Whoever that person would be, we are sure that person cannot do much for the betterment of this country,” the JVP Leader said.

Without giving a chance to explain the policies of the new Prime Minister, the JVP Leader jumped to the conclusion that this person will not be able to come up with a new plan to initiate a good political culture, or a good economic policy for this country. We do not have faith in any person from either side.”

The position of Opposition Leader is not the only issue to be solved. It is the duty of everybody to think of the country, and the people, and find an amicable settlement to the current political crisis. In this connection, the Organization of Professional Associations (OPA) has taken an initiative. It has appealed to the warring parties to bury the hatchet and spare a thought for the people. Issuing a statement, it has prevailed on all political parties and politicians, legislators, and the Executive the need to uphold the spirit of democracy. Pointing out the ongoing political impasse between the Legislature and the Executive, it urged all parties to the current crisis to resolve their differences through consensus, without resorting to violence.

The OPA views with deep concern, the effects this impasse has on the economy, and urges that the socio-economic fabric of society is not irreparably damaged.

Ending impasse

One of the main requirements to end this impasse is to hold an election, either Provincial Council elections or a national referendum, so that the people would indicate the general lines of electoral trends, as it is not easy to gauge the exact political balance of forces. It is not yet clear whether the electorate will opt for an overwhelming shift in favour of Rajapaksa. An election will indicate a clear political picture. Most preferable would be a general election, but the issue cannot be revived because of the Supreme Court verdict that the Parliament cannot be dissolved until completion of four and a half years, or if such a request is supported by two-thirds of MPs, which is highly unlikely. The democratic people of Sri Lanka hope that the UNP and JVP will not change their minds about supporting a parliamentary motion on dissolution of Parliament, and conducting general elections. Unless the MPs decide in favour of an election, the political crisis is likely to continue until the end of the five-year term in August/September 2020, or at least until completion of four and a half years in April 2020, when the President can dissolve Parliament and hold fresh elections.